{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bf08ef1-1f54-42b0-acaf-ab473472cf9c", "symbol": "002801", "name": "Hangzhou Weiguang Electronic Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.195, "architecture_energy": 55.972, "architecture_maturity": 47.748, "architecture_confidence": 88.587, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.55, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 10.35, "deceleration": 42.69, "rotation_down": 61.36, "downward_expansion": 81.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.305333, 27.972, 29.486038, 30.426955 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.98, "trend_reference": 31.862376, "distance_from_trend": -0.121848, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.719587, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047172, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.262873, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.200108, "excess_performance": -0.207507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121848, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046451, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047172, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221473, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013383, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.200108, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.747647, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6380379, "relative_activity": 0.718262, "balance": 0.747647, "dry_up": 0.718438, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099971, "annualized_volatility": 0.446673, "from_high_reference": -0.300843, "from_low_reference": 0.114741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.862376, "fair_value_reference": 26.719587, "structural_low": 25.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.009165, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.023307, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.114801, "worst_return": -0.142584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049738, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.00352, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.152418, "worst_return": -0.170362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.13358, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.11727, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.409449, "worst_return": -0.218034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -78.225805, "energy": 73.06447, "activity_lines": [ 28.079333, 29.307326, 30.522834, 31.401119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.02, "volume": 6259374, "typical_volume": 9485307.15, "trend": 32.310271, "fair_value": 26.679132, "relative_strength": -22.255329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.608987, "energy": 63.736086, "activity_lines": [ 27.201333, 28.511091, 30.023341, 30.982328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.82, "volume": 5318944, "typical_volume": 9148173.7, "trend": 32.098009, "fair_value": 26.696876, "relative_strength": -15.048193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.643502, "energy": 64.469708, "activity_lines": [ 27.258, 28.164, 29.72993, 30.692633 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.98, "volume": 6380379, "typical_volume": 8883078.45, "trend": 31.862376, "fair_value": 26.719587, "relative_strength": -18.262873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.194628, "energy": 55.971733, "activity_lines": [ 27.305333, 27.972, 29.486038, 30.426955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }