{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bf8657d-87e9-43ec-98fd-d7f556c5bbfd", "symbol": "XCTE", "name": "Xtrackers Harvest MSCI China Tech 100 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.057, "architecture_energy": 49.542, "architecture_maturity": 4.453, "architecture_confidence": 70.092, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.16, "rotation_up": 10.96, "upward_expansion": 18.6, "deceleration": 43.28, "rotation_down": 64.96, "downward_expansion": 77.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.327334, 35.553318, 36.156429, 36.121231 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.427502, "trend_reference": 36.2225, "distance_from_trend": 0.00566, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.324632, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242215, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.948273, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00698, "excess_performance": -0.044255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00566, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006028, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242215, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091658, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105594, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00698, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.643489, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16012, "relative_activity": 8.031903, "balance": 4.643489, "dry_up": 2.493542, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031274, "annualized_volatility": 0.205052, "from_high_reference": -0.096204, "from_low_reference": 0.135255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.2225, "fair_value_reference": 29.324632, "structural_low": 33.185001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008424, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018663, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.442621, "worst_return": -0.101195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059803, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.022961, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.275165, "worst_return": -0.074933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.206546, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.148294, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.470473, "worst_return": -0.05738, "sufficient": false }, { 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36.470167, "fair_value": 29.145273, "relative_strength": -6.163773, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.999609, "energy": 16.724452, "activity_lines": [ 36.164, 36.603773, 36.590738, 36.471166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.022499, "volume": 3074, "typical_volume": 1307.4, "trend": 36.403833, "fair_value": 29.191475, "relative_strength": -11.926654, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.665581, "energy": 64.549693, "activity_lines": [ 35.392166, 36.068363, 36.380619, 36.313252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.6875, "volume": 298, "typical_volume": 1259.55, "trend": 36.346166, "fair_value": 29.226635, "relative_strength": -11.184451, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.04151, "energy": 67.838296, "activity_lines": [ 35.0045, 35.728227, 36.242762, 36.202521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.924999, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1217.5, "trend": 36.266333, "fair_value": 29.264071, "relative_strength": -11.560179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.469804, "energy": 67.613709, "activity_lines": [ 34.882666, 35.484591, 36.126762, 36.110833 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.427502, "volume": 16012, "typical_volume": 1993.55, "trend": 36.2225, "fair_value": 29.324632, "relative_strength": -7.948273, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.057293, "energy": 49.542018, "activity_lines": [ 35.327334, 35.553318, 36.156429, 36.121231 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }