{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bfa8d15-52a5-49a6-aa8b-09b780074e45", "symbol": "NIM", "name": "Nimy Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.393, "architecture_energy": 45.28, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.165, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.18, "rotation_up": 27.65, "upward_expansion": 20.64, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 38.46, "downward_expansion": 68.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.043733, 0.043145, 0.047438, 0.051578 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.045, "trend_reference": 0.056383, "distance_from_trend": -0.201892, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.081788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.4498, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.093805, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.338235, "excess_performance": -0.401941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201892, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103841, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.4498, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.300938, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135634, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.338235, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.192977, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 943757, "relative_activity": 0.559275, "balance": 0.192977, "dry_up": 0.639059, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100855, "annualized_volatility": 0.493365, "from_high_reference": -0.526316, "from_low_reference": 0.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.056383, "fair_value_reference": 0.081788, "structural_low": 0.035, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.008767, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02567, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.705882, "worst_return": -0.442623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.125, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.136205, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.246154, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.306548, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.320017, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.123077, "worst_return": -0.43, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.301587, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.507692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.26506, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.22807, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014085, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.189536, "energy": 86.654754, "activity_lines": [ 0.0406, 0.044027, 0.050231, 0.054124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.042, "volume": 1513649, "typical_volume": 2192767.7, "trend": 0.057517, "fair_value": 0.083032, "relative_strength": -31.998431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.237163, "energy": 67.152148, "activity_lines": [ 0.040667, 0.043036, 0.048933, 0.053088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.046, "volume": 981575, "typical_volume": 1806433.75, "trend": 0.056883, "fair_value": 0.082397, "relative_strength": -26.928142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.133554, "energy": 61.225939, "activity_lines": [ 0.042533, 0.043073, 0.048174, 0.052345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.045, "volume": 943757, "typical_volume": 1687465.85, "trend": 0.056383, "fair_value": 0.081788, "relative_strength": -30.093805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.392813, "energy": 45.279508, "activity_lines": [ 0.043733, 0.043145, 0.047438, 0.051578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }