{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c0c4865-54de-4621-baf1-7327cdf68601", "symbol": "FINX", "name": "Global X FinTech ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 80.345, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 11.838, "architecture_energy": 37.163, "architecture_maturity": 22.767, "architecture_confidence": 52.71, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.16, "rotation_up": 56.98, "upward_expansion": 41.54, "deceleration": 40.88, "rotation_down": 14.01, "downward_expansion": 45.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 447.1, 441.919201, 439.993739, 441.065779 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 448.0, "trend_reference": 447.606341, "distance_from_trend": 0.000879, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 538.377494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16787, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.774061, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.054852, "excess_performance": -0.000186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000879, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093106, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16787, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023024, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131097, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054852, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.591398, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.591398, "dry_up": 0.065367, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012903, "annualized_volatility": 0.14217, "from_high_reference": -0.302584, "from_low_reference": 0.068516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 447.606341, "fair_value_reference": 538.377494, "structural_low": 419.273163, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.136802, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 25.976059, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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210.35, "trend": 452.339674, "fair_value": 539.949276, "relative_strength": -15.907401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.639919, "energy": 23.836287, "activity_lines": [ 442.549872, 437.451734, 438.376503, 441.473049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 448.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 210.35, "trend": 449.973007, "fair_value": 539.15661, "relative_strength": -15.674234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.419748, "energy": 34.047775, "activity_lines": [ 445.3, 439.706128, 439.204169, 441.19307 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 448.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 210.35, "trend": 447.606341, "fair_value": 538.377494, "relative_strength": -14.774061, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.838194, "energy": 37.162831, "activity_lines": [ 447.1, 441.919201, 439.993739, 441.065779 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }