{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c0fb4cf-8c37-41a7-b7f0-ea898c2734c9", "symbol": "GEL", "name": "General Engineering Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 91.37, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.0, "architecture_energy": 43.552, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.7, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.28, "rotation_up": 61.27, "upward_expansion": 50.21, "deceleration": 19.55, "rotation_down": 19.14, "downward_expansion": 25.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.042, 0.037818, 0.034238, 0.034473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.05, "trend_reference": 0.035, "distance_from_trend": 0.428571, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.094679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.471903, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.629872, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.25, "excess_performance": 0.057675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.428571, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060606, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.471903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.258357, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.236299, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.553854, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.614203, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57354100, "relative_activity": 3.858434, "balance": 0.614203, "dry_up": 1.588053, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.246154, "annualized_volatility": 1.653828, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 4.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.035, "fair_value_reference": 0.094679, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.055555, "positive_rate": 0.095238, "directional_follow_through": 0.095238, "median_excess_return": -0.058794, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.434783, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.170731, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.178613, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.4, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.382599, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.17143, "worst_return": -0.583333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.294118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, 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"stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.283104, "energy": 8.498193, "activity_lines": [ 0.033333, 0.030727, 0.031571, 0.032817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.03, "volume": 4135400, "typical_volume": 11575675.0, "trend": 0.033333, "fair_value": 0.098013, "relative_strength": -27.892545, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.223769, "energy": 14.396709, "activity_lines": [ 0.032667, 0.030909, 0.031286, 0.032624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.04, "volume": 10443400, "typical_volume": 11566765.0, "trend": 0.033667, "fair_value": 0.096859, "relative_strength": -4.106598, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.586167, "energy": 14.672641, "activity_lines": [ 0.035333, 0.032909, 0.031952, 0.033054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 22490200, "typical_volume": 12261390.0, "trend": 0.034333, "fair_value": 0.095705, "relative_strength": -2.415993, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.948925, "energy": 23.874769, "activity_lines": [ 0.037333, 0.034545, 0.032619, 0.033462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.05, "volume": 57354100, "typical_volume": 14864605.0, "trend": 0.035, "fair_value": 0.094679, "relative_strength": 23.629872, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.000267, "energy": 43.551973, "activity_lines": [ 0.042, 0.037818, 0.034238, 0.034473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }