{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c12c6a7-8aaf-4855-a53c-7ed3b6779773", "symbol": "SYM", "name": "Symphony Environmental Technologies plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.429, "architecture_energy": 21.415, "architecture_maturity": 13.149, "architecture_confidence": 44.165, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.63, "rotation_up": 34.56, "upward_expansion": 63.64, "deceleration": 68.11, "rotation_down": 21.1, "downward_expansion": 6.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0825, 0.082364, 0.079667, 0.077435 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0825, "trend_reference": 0.076667, "distance_from_trend": 0.076087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.057046, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.446189, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.800002, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.064516, "excess_performance": 0.013281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076087, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025424, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.446189, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10222, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064516, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.240701, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 411690, "relative_activity": 1.142554, "balance": 0.240701, "dry_up": 0.595097, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.185828, "annualized_volatility": 0.613276, "from_high_reference": -0.333172, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.076667, "fair_value_reference": 0.057046, "structural_low": 0.055, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.057143, "positive_rate": 0.210526, "directional_follow_through": 0.210526, "median_excess_return": -0.073066, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 1.416667, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.165246, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.213356, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 1.857143, "worst_return": -0.485714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.199092, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.650794, "worst_return": -0.628571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.295965, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.327795, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.539683, "worst_return": -0.742857, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12069, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.482759, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.357143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", 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"relative_strength": -7.81144, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.673633, "energy": 28.281924, "activity_lines": [ 0.083333, 0.080455, 0.077369, 0.076409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0825, "volume": 116994, "typical_volume": 483193.1, "trend": 0.077167, "fair_value": 0.05703, "relative_strength": -7.8866, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.225237, "energy": 17.670642, "activity_lines": [ 0.082667, 0.081136, 0.07819, 0.076737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0825, "volume": 114111, "typical_volume": 430863.9, "trend": 0.077, "fair_value": 0.057079, "relative_strength": -7.686668, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.181014, "energy": 22.740347, "activity_lines": [ 0.0825, 0.081818, 0.078976, 0.077081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0825, "volume": 411690, "typical_volume": 360324.25, "trend": 0.076667, "fair_value": 0.057046, "relative_strength": -6.800002, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.428538, "energy": 21.414916, "activity_lines": [ 0.0825, 0.082364, 0.079667, 0.077435 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }