{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c13b699-fd1a-45c9-a310-b0a0b8176921", "symbol": "VBAL", "name": "Vanguard Balanced ETF Portfolio", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.503, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.103, "architecture_energy": 42.814, "architecture_maturity": 55.04, "architecture_confidence": 68.223, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.86, "rotation_up": 42.93, "upward_expansion": 67.7, "deceleration": 85.23, "rotation_down": 27.16, "downward_expansion": 17.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.574667, 39.586249, 39.252273, 38.790881 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.060001, "trend_reference": 38.272674, "distance_from_trend": 0.0467, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.107985, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20998, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.156608, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070642, "excess_performance": -0.04978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0467, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022247, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20998, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007114, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051566, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002568, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070642, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.996946, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 479800, "relative_activity": 0.883406, "balance": 0.996946, "dry_up": 1.194246, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015038, "annualized_volatility": 0.097004, "from_high_reference": -0.004968, "from_low_reference": 0.151048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.272674, "fair_value_reference": 33.107985, "structural_low": 35.864827, "invalidation": "A 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"activity_lines": [ 39.77303, 39.489217, 38.840424, 38.429606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.259998, "volume": 816800, "typical_volume": 579530.0, "trend": 38.036118, "fair_value": 32.872357, "relative_strength": -4.828752, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.667894, "energy": 57.316316, "activity_lines": [ 39.625483, 39.495378, 38.935982, 38.513261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.259998, "volume": 720700, "typical_volume": 560495.0, "trend": 38.102891, "fair_value": 32.947916, "relative_strength": -4.878088, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.060222, "energy": 46.401882, "activity_lines": [ 39.482761, 39.489293, 39.026127, 38.592221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.310001, "volume": 577200, "typical_volume": 553450.0, "trend": 38.187884, "fair_value": 33.025393, "relative_strength": -4.12575, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.527805, "energy": 36.403643, "activity_lines": [ 39.397333, 39.474087, 39.109935, 38.670099 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.060001, "volume": 479800, "typical_volume": 543125.0, "trend": 38.272674, "fair_value": 33.107985, "relative_strength": -5.156608, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.102549, "energy": 42.814484, "activity_lines": [ 39.574667, 39.586249, 39.252273, 38.790881 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }