{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c190ad5-4e90-48b8-ae7b-82a71842a433", "symbol": "VNGD20", "name": "Vanguard Funds PLC - Vanguard Lifestrategy 20 Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.321, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.746, "architecture_energy": 17.11, "architecture_maturity": 25.041, "architecture_confidence": 55.855, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.71, "rotation_up": 23.22, "upward_expansion": 23.4, "deceleration": 66.75, "rotation_down": 47.64, "downward_expansion": 32.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.360001, 22.401285, 22.365925, 22.343148 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 22.485001, "trend_reference": 22.351331, "distance_from_trend": 0.00598, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.285686, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056344, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.679398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001336, "excess_performance": -0.169556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00598, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001702, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056344, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00442, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136794, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001336, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.778172, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3796, "relative_activity": 0.925312, "balance": 1.778172, "dry_up": 0.847492, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006312, "annualized_volatility": 0.051163, "from_high_reference": -0.013816, "from_low_reference": 0.03342 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.351331, "fair_value_reference": 21.285686, "structural_low": 21.84628, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.000203, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025439, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.015141, "worst_return": -0.038869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006081, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062631, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.017018, "worst_return": -0.04682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008804, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.105859, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.050742, "worst_return": -0.047848, "sufficient": 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57.18535, "activity_lines": [ 22.499711, 22.432225, 22.330495, 22.337737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.465, "volume": 480, "typical_volume": 4052.95, "trend": 22.350498, "fair_value": 21.214574, "relative_strength": -13.424174, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.475492, "energy": 53.283567, "activity_lines": [ 22.499102, 22.450409, 22.344805, 22.345653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.375, "volume": 948, "typical_volume": 4032.9, "trend": 22.353831, "fair_value": 21.231954, "relative_strength": -12.193041, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.208478, "energy": 38.542065, "activity_lines": [ 22.461, 22.445538, 22.351472, 22.347233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.280001, "volume": 3042, "typical_volume": 4062.15, "trend": 22.353665, "fair_value": 21.248785, "relative_strength": -12.079758, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.301354, "energy": 6.489614, "activity_lines": [ 22.394, 22.42254, 22.350829, 22.34247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.23, "volume": 6121, "typical_volume": 4030.55, "trend": 22.350831, "fair_value": 21.2663, "relative_strength": -12.497838, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.341977, "energy": 21.322462, "activity_lines": [ 22.324667, 22.388376, 22.346187, 22.334492 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.485001, "volume": 3796, "typical_volume": 4102.4, "trend": 22.351331, "fair_value": 21.285686, "relative_strength": -13.679398, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.745624, "energy": 17.110211, "activity_lines": [ 22.360001, 22.401285, 22.365925, 22.343148 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }