{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c1d73c1-0622-4295-acbe-b3794b2e5235", "symbol": "ELON", "name": "Elon AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.601, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.944, "architecture_energy": 21.946, "architecture_maturity": 10.147, "architecture_confidence": 92.97, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.24, "rotation_up": 22.01, "upward_expansion": 6.08, "deceleration": 42.95, "rotation_down": 42.59, "downward_expansion": 70.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.753333, 18.778181, 19.038809, 19.053656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 19.049999, "trend_reference": 19.085, "distance_from_trend": -0.001834, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.347243, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.147546, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.512984, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037879, "excess_performance": -0.099373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001834, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033764, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.147546, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023728, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009794, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037879, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.7044, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12884, "relative_activity": 0.791262, "balance": 0.7044, "dry_up": 0.627286, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074097, "annualized_volatility": 0.395226, "from_high_reference": -0.20625, "from_low_reference": 0.265781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.085, "fair_value_reference": 22.347243, "structural_low": 15.05, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.022222, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.026268, "regime_survival": 0.62963, "best_return": 0.296919, "worst_return": -0.215889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.07837, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.048969, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.148036, "worst_return": -0.303849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.088063, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.132255, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.451411, 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19.833333, 19.680909, 19.368095, 19.06043 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 18.4, "volume": 1560, "typical_volume": 24616.8, "trend": 18.556667, "fair_value": 22.737936, "relative_strength": -14.138902, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.158012, "energy": 12.319512, "activity_lines": [ 19.343333, 19.466364, 19.290238, 19.053011 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 19.299999, "volume": 26444, "typical_volume": 24853.75, "trend": 18.625, "fair_value": 22.695071, "relative_strength": -10.914012, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.143148, "energy": 14.086014, "activity_lines": [ 19.273333, 19.431818, 19.303095, 19.100968 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 18.6, "volume": 1087, "typical_volume": 23724.6, "trend": 18.673334, "fair_value": 22.641894, "relative_strength": -12.594267, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.564036, "energy": 13.119758, "activity_lines": [ 18.98, 19.268182, 19.249524, 19.099355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.65, "volume": 4565, "typical_volume": 23198.1, "trend": 18.771667, "fair_value": 22.590206, "relative_strength": -9.373294, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.072432, "energy": 16.840133, "activity_lines": [ 19.15, 19.316364, 19.301667, 19.162366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.549999, "volume": 7360, "typical_volume": 21810.0, "trend": 18.845, "fair_value": 22.539039, "relative_strength": -11.66825, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.970337, "energy": 7.560498, "activity_lines": [ 18.943333, 19.166363, 19.250238, 19.148065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.5, "volume": 8168, "typical_volume": 20114.95, "trend": 18.895, "fair_value": 22.485801, "relative_strength": -14.91447, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.493933, "energy": 29.609123, "activity_lines": [ 18.476666, 18.823636, 19.095714, 19.06129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.5, "volume": 9658, "typical_volume": 18228.0, "trend": 18.973333, "fair_value": 22.43839, "relative_strength": -10.683308, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.539636, "energy": 26.993048, "activity_lines": [ 18.403333, 18.711818, 19.033809, 19.035806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.25, "volume": 10146, "typical_volume": 16349.3, "trend": 19.05, "fair_value": 22.388215, "relative_strength": -7.55132, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.047686, "energy": 23.082449, "activity_lines": [ 18.633333, 18.753636, 19.047143, 19.053656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.049999, "volume": 12884, "typical_volume": 16282.85, "trend": 19.085, "fair_value": 22.347243, "relative_strength": -9.512984, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.943708, "energy": 21.946108, "activity_lines": [ 18.753333, 18.778181, 19.038809, 19.053656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }