{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c1f18c6-ed2e-4d61-bc3d-62504a03818e", "symbol": "UWMC", "name": "UWM Holdings Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.274, "architecture_energy": 82.345, "architecture_maturity": 68.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.424, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 17.94, "upward_expansion": 15.64, "deceleration": 43.54, "rotation_down": 78.46, "downward_expansion": 93.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.686, 1.885513, 2.304032, 2.663274 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.28, "trend_reference": 3.234578, "distance_from_trend": -0.604276, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.814596, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.734142, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.014945, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.710756, "excess_performance": -0.836381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.604276, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218874, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.734142, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.380672, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.720149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.374388, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.710756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.071269, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 207870066, "relative_activity": 2.171935, "balance": 0.071269, "dry_up": 1.137308, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.27544, "annualized_volatility": 0.59364, "from_high_reference": -0.800619, "from_low_reference": 0.3759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.234578, "fair_value_reference": 4.814596, "structural_low": 0.9303, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.014109, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.019051, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.366906, "worst_return": -0.249191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018256, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.007644, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.308778, "worst_return": -0.287318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.415963, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.249831, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.658794, "worst_return": -0.316432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.008319, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104552, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.060378, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.207698, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134615, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 2.100667, 2.249621, 2.653856, 3.01032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.83, "volume": 81817209, "typical_volume": 91958549.0, "trend": 3.434652, "fair_value": 4.859897, "relative_strength": -59.251354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.526155, "energy": 72.498725, "activity_lines": [ 1.999333, 2.142687, 2.546895, 2.901533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.82, "volume": 76752993, "typical_volume": 90493361.25, "trend": 3.358366, "fair_value": 4.837539, "relative_strength": -59.443628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.193225, "energy": 73.259356, "activity_lines": [ 1.920667, 2.052856, 2.447392, 2.797362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.28, "volume": 207870066, "typical_volume": 95707307.8, "trend": 3.234578, "fair_value": 4.814596, "relative_strength": -72.014945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.274337, "energy": 82.344651, "activity_lines": [ 1.686, 1.885513, 2.304032, 2.663274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }