{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c213800-0229-4bac-baaa-be3ed7120bfd", "symbol": "JPEM", "name": "JPMorgan Diversified Return Emerging Markets Equity ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.323, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.203, "architecture_energy": 73.331, "architecture_maturity": 5.003, "architecture_confidence": 65.238, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.36, "rotation_up": 73.61, "upward_expansion": 63.98, "deceleration": 23.7, "rotation_down": 16.29, "downward_expansion": 24.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 1113.627995, 1107.932539, 1102.147957, 1101.193852 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1117.0, "trend_reference": 1103.171761, "distance_from_trend": 0.012535, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1071.678166, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042291, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.373798, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.000252, "excess_performance": 0.054918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012535, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001826, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042291, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031519, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003738, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099871, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.073221, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.073221, "dry_up": 0.923262, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006931, "annualized_volatility": 0.147798, "from_high_reference": -0.016025, "from_low_reference": 0.068316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1103.171761, "fair_value_reference": 1071.678166, "structural_low": 1045.570679, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.005373, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005373, "worst_return": 0.005373, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049809, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005276, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", 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"modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.716929, "energy": 64.477583, "activity_lines": [ 1109.815991, 1105.400066, 1100.259451, 1100.275599 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1117.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1164.35, "trend": 1103.171761, "fair_value": 1071.678166, "relative_strength": -0.373798, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.202632, "energy": 73.330838, "activity_lines": [ 1113.627995, 1107.932539, 1102.147957, 1101.193852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }