{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c21f044-d0ca-4c28-ae24-6beaea5b60b7", "symbol": "HOWL", "name": "Werewolf Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.057, "architecture_energy": 35.221, "architecture_maturity": 76.753, "architecture_confidence": 89.9, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.6, "rotation_up": 27.01, "upward_expansion": 17.37, "deceleration": 44.82, "rotation_down": 35.53, "downward_expansion": 65.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.38786, 0.377475, 0.443, 0.516667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.3971, "trend_reference": 0.585527, "distance_from_trend": -0.321807, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.107281, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.811558, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.825066, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.351356, "excess_performance": -0.538809, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.321807, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216236, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.811558, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103789, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.608251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133553, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.351356, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.631741, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1783779, "relative_activity": 0.589489, "balance": 0.631741, "dry_up": 1.223471, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.27817, "annualized_volatility": 0.948468, "from_high_reference": -0.833151, "from_low_reference": 0.470741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.585527, "fair_value_reference": 2.107281, "structural_low": 0.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.014423, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.015815, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.408333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.084649, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.103632, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.181818, "worst_return": -0.586322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.192308, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.24063, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.030303, "worst_return": -0.506343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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0.573401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.368, "volume": 3498377, "typical_volume": 2778123.15, "trend": 0.609707, "fair_value": 2.149863, "relative_strength": -64.613273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.954206, "energy": 51.391412, "activity_lines": [ 0.3647, 0.375009, 0.497858, 0.557121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.427, "volume": 4223537, "typical_volume": 2901404.1, "trend": 0.60213, "fair_value": 2.1351, "relative_strength": -57.292972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.654081, "energy": 40.32202, "activity_lines": [ 0.387987, 0.380505, 0.481539, 0.545334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3531, "volume": 5303072, "typical_volume": 3003927.0, "trend": 0.592407, "fair_value": 2.121466, "relative_strength": -64.127119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.520998, "energy": 38.257805, "activity_lines": [ 0.381593, 0.374167, 0.459158, 0.529267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3971, "volume": 1783779, "typical_volume": 3025973.2, "trend": 0.585527, "fair_value": 2.107281, "relative_strength": -60.825066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.057115, "energy": 35.221017, "activity_lines": [ 0.38786, 0.377475, 0.443, 0.516667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }