{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c244fb9-ce49-4717-95e1-534c99ca23b2", "symbol": "NCH2", "name": "thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.728, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.277, "architecture_energy": 30.712, "architecture_maturity": 45.787, "architecture_confidence": 56.938, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.07, "rotation_up": 24.86, "upward_expansion": 15.72, "deceleration": 65.33, "rotation_down": 36.35, "downward_expansion": 63.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.704667, 7.659545, 7.893524, 8.053903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.925, "trend_reference": 8.319, "distance_from_trend": -0.047361, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.868109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.270802, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.534033, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.140456, "excess_performance": -0.314702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047361, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025022, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.270802, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019141, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26534, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015524, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140456, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 761.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 761.0, "dry_up": 2.260602, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052026, "annualized_volatility": 0.281581, "from_high_reference": -0.333474, "from_low_reference": 0.11935 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.319, "fair_value_reference": 10.868109, "structural_low": 7.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.030564, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.021466, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.18556, "worst_return": -0.058928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.209622, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.064227, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226046, "worst_return": 0.001282, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.226016, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027769, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.280641, "worst_return": 0.17139, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118472, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.146249, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.219557, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024654, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214575, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011931, "active": false }, { "regime": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.206526, "energy": 73.726156, "activity_lines": [ 7.632, 7.936727, 8.129024, 8.305312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.525, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 173.8, "trend": 8.4785, "fair_value": 11.256186, "relative_strength": -31.851941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.246912, "energy": 76.224332, "activity_lines": [ 7.559333, 7.824455, 8.056643, 8.243333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.56, "volume": 661, "typical_volume": 206.85, "trend": 8.4325, "fair_value": 11.156827, "relative_strength": -29.31313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.854704, "energy": 72.590326, "activity_lines": [ 7.536, 7.740455, 7.99619, 8.184075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.64, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 131.85, "trend": 8.394333, "fair_value": 11.059904, "relative_strength": -28.693223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.603357, "energy": 46.051413, "activity_lines": [ 7.567667, 7.682455, 7.950619, 8.132946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.595, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 131.85, "trend": 8.350833, "fair_value": 10.961795, "relative_strength": -28.251817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.862724, "energy": 43.547215, "activity_lines": [ 7.595667, 7.631636, 7.904952, 8.081376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.925, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73.1, "trend": 8.319, "fair_value": 10.868109, "relative_strength": -26.534033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.276644, "energy": 30.711861, "activity_lines": [ 7.704667, 7.659545, 7.893524, 8.053903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }