{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c254daf-31c7-4d46-bf7c-034321005fc7", "symbol": "SENS", "name": "Senseonics Holdings, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.216, "architecture_energy": 23.642, "architecture_maturity": 20.176, "architecture_confidence": 93.469, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.78, "rotation_up": 22.31, "upward_expansion": 4.98, "deceleration": 50.44, "rotation_down": 47.83, "downward_expansion": 78.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.693333, 5.707818, 5.930905, 6.126925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.02, "trend_reference": 6.467667, "distance_from_trend": 0.085399, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.505833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.261506, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.485448, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055182, "excess_performance": -0.242635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085399, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017022, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.261506, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.251005, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.361147, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.787934, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4193543, "relative_activity": 1.19644, "balance": 0.787934, "dry_up": 0.797438, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127259, "annualized_volatility": 0.933825, "from_high_reference": -0.393573, "from_low_reference": 0.465553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.467667, "fair_value_reference": 9.505833, "structural_low": 4.79, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.005684, "positive_rate": 0.512821, "directional_follow_through": 0.487179, "median_excess_return": -0.029751, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.967361, "worst_return": -0.290323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.085789, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.160154, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 2.343195, "worst_return": -0.474227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.118374, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.256507, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.23432, "worst_return": -0.617978, "sufficient": 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.312732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.237528, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149047, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024069, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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-59.160125, "energy": 48.693863, "activity_lines": [ 5.776, 6.095273, 6.184952, 6.389849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.11, "volume": 2621374, "typical_volume": 3559033.6, "trend": 6.541667, "fair_value": 9.70791, "relative_strength": -37.083012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.625017, "energy": 63.154918, "activity_lines": [ 5.446, 5.913455, 6.06919, 6.295247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.86, "volume": 2319056, "typical_volume": 3471161.4, "trend": 6.503, "fair_value": 9.624103, "relative_strength": -37.914811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.71086, "energy": 70.313739, "activity_lines": [ 5.170667, 5.684727, 5.944667, 6.186753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.03, "volume": 2046162, "typical_volume": 3427167.15, "trend": 6.474333, "fair_value": 9.547359, "relative_strength": -34.956787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.709041, "energy": 72.285833, "activity_lines": [ 5.077333, 5.503455, 5.841571, 6.09172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.02, "volume": 4193543, "typical_volume": 3505016.5, "trend": 6.467667, "fair_value": 9.505833, "relative_strength": -12.485448, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.215545, "energy": 23.642442, "activity_lines": [ 5.693333, 5.707818, 5.930905, 6.126925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }