{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c2be056-164b-4166-ad0f-aeca53fba3a3", "symbol": "300616", "name": "Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.247, "architecture_energy": 68.805, "architecture_maturity": 26.23, "architecture_confidence": 81.884, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.87, "rotation_up": 10.95, "upward_expansion": 14.98, "deceleration": 39.09, "rotation_down": 70.33, "downward_expansion": 88.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.814667, 10.407818, 11.84724, 12.311664 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.34, "trend_reference": 12.971619, "distance_from_trend": -0.202875, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.911335, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.199153, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.435332, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.310987, "excess_performance": -0.318387, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202875, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.199153, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276926, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124312, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310987, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.544801, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25977853, "relative_activity": 0.821743, "balance": 1.544801, "dry_up": 0.852169, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.169987, "annualized_volatility": 0.552506, "from_high_reference": -0.457077, "from_low_reference": 0.200929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.971619, "fair_value_reference": 12.911335, "structural_low": 8.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.014028, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.0141, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.708074, "worst_return": -0.264088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.121333, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.050721, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.282197, "worst_return": -0.364624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.236804, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.174574, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.14678, "worst_return": -0.450674, 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"volume": 28041700, "typical_volume": 30381573.7, "trend": 13.397292, "fair_value": 13.052998, "relative_strength": -29.477021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.749562, "energy": 79.206857, "activity_lines": [ 10.47, 11.829665, 12.695575, 12.98937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.02, "volume": 28336487, "typical_volume": 30768035.3, "trend": 13.22175, "fair_value": 13.001832, "relative_strength": -32.024768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.892353, "energy": 82.319141, "activity_lines": [ 9.792667, 11.10897, 12.326664, 12.706964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.84, "volume": 25402918, "typical_volume": 31038678.2, "trend": 13.085389, "fair_value": 12.956532, "relative_strength": -24.003301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.557189, "energy": 76.93941, "activity_lines": [ 9.680667, 10.649273, 12.055706, 12.488786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.34, "volume": 25977853, "typical_volume": 31613129.2, "trend": 12.971619, "fair_value": 12.911335, "relative_strength": -23.435332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.246915, "energy": 68.804544, "activity_lines": [ 9.814667, 10.407818, 11.84724, 12.311664 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }