{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c2df2b8-2bf1-4169-b79c-dca33da000a0", "symbol": "SHIVAMILLS", "name": "Shiva Mills Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 50.505, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.732, "architecture_energy": 27.958, "architecture_maturity": 24.694, "architecture_confidence": 60.019, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.01, "rotation_up": 44.73, "upward_expansion": 60.48, "deceleration": 56.42, "rotation_down": 20.52, "downward_expansion": 15.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.214666, 61.548363, 61.758762, 60.250538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 65.489998, "trend_reference": 58.501667, "distance_from_trend": 0.119455, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 78.583397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.166618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.783459, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.142732, "excess_performance": 0.186442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119455, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003656, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.166618, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.067835, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142732, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.821874, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27336, "relative_activity": 1.321285, "balance": 0.821874, "dry_up": 0.477006, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070674, "annualized_volatility": 0.408384, "from_high_reference": -0.149591, "from_low_reference": 0.522669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.501667, "fair_value_reference": 78.583397, "structural_low": 43.009998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.048552, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.071351, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.358413, "worst_return": -0.234274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.084888, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.04685, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.186122, "worst_return": -0.189155, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.180818, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.101158, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.320541, "worst_return": -0.156277, "sufficient": false }, { 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088558, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037953, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.128924, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041764, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08444, 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"close": 61.5, "volume": 4182, "typical_volume": 21111.6, "trend": 58.253, "fair_value": 78.78282, "relative_strength": 0.163373, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.709505, "energy": 17.138782, "activity_lines": [ 60.477333, 61.478364, 60.91981, 59.492839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.880001, "volume": 4465, "typical_volume": 20530.1, "trend": 58.201334, "fair_value": 78.702564, "relative_strength": 0.277549, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.687604, "energy": 13.526898, "activity_lines": [ 60.226, 61.007091, 61.013238, 59.597807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.02, "volume": 3492, "typical_volume": 19858.8, "trend": 58.191334, "fair_value": 78.618077, "relative_strength": 0.031023, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.612001, "energy": 10.856237, "activity_lines": [ 60.442667, 60.831818, 61.188715, 59.779656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.489998, "volume": 27336, "typical_volume": 20688.95, "trend": 58.501667, "fair_value": 78.583397, "relative_strength": 6.783459, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.732108, "energy": 27.958066, "activity_lines": [ 62.214666, 61.548363, 61.758762, 60.250538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }