{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c2f328c-7cad-480d-b242-a2431a11a1a8", "symbol": "002823", "name": "Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.268, "architecture_energy": 71.894, "architecture_maturity": 17.692, "architecture_confidence": 78.731, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.34, "rotation_up": 9.08, "upward_expansion": 16.05, "deceleration": 37.72, "rotation_down": 72.84, "downward_expansion": 89.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.886667, 13.717636, 14.996662, 15.291764 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.36, "trend_reference": 15.646707, "distance_from_trend": -0.146146, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.377563, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.628374, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.139162, "excess_performance": -0.146562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146146, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02652, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001313, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.305859, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076033, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139162, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.079152, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24640164, "relative_activity": 0.734048, "balance": 2.079152, "dry_up": 0.801961, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134373, "annualized_volatility": 0.5166, "from_high_reference": -0.374239, "from_low_reference": 0.165794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.646707, "fair_value_reference": 13.377563, "structural_low": 11.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.076344, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": 0.036536, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.137316, "worst_return": -0.145473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.094375, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.066181, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.431718, "worst_return": -0.084915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.121894, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.116909, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.278296, "worst_return": -0.135849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.78, "volume": 37163471, "typical_volume": 34505529.5, "trend": 16.034136, "fair_value": 13.308974, "relative_strength": -22.186579, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.947019, "energy": 36.405586, "activity_lines": [ 14.912, 16.070944, 16.164375, 16.108827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.71, "volume": 27401145, "typical_volume": 34251960.25, "trend": 15.944748, "fair_value": 13.325335, "relative_strength": -20.743371, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.229412, "energy": 67.991184, "activity_lines": [ 14.020667, 15.361922, 15.843943, 15.894366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.9, "volume": 31041164, "typical_volume": 34128950.35, "trend": 15.826717, "fair_value": 13.336985, "relative_strength": -25.600971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.031043, "energy": 81.475845, "activity_lines": [ 13.12, 14.580364, 15.465284, 15.633415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.9, "volume": 24596745, "typical_volume": 33774805.25, "trend": 15.728881, "fair_value": 13.354323, "relative_strength": -17.694644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.236907, "energy": 76.517803, "activity_lines": [ 12.88, 14.063636, 15.201493, 15.444595 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.36, "volume": 24640164, "typical_volume": 33567489.85, "trend": 15.646707, "fair_value": 13.377563, "relative_strength": -18.628374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.268004, "energy": 71.893644, "activity_lines": [ 12.886667, 13.717636, 14.996662, 15.291764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }