{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c304555-f6a4-4e57-babd-7b1cbdf27ff6", "symbol": "DVN", "name": "Devon Energy Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.648, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.101, "architecture_energy": 11.007, "architecture_maturity": 15.26, "architecture_confidence": 56.013, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.19, "rotation_up": 39.86, "upward_expansion": 29.88, "deceleration": 45.88, "rotation_down": 23.92, "downward_expansion": 23.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.24, 37.83363, 38.386224, 38.722478 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 37.43, "trend_reference": 38.351452, "distance_from_trend": -0.024027, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.48595, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.468668, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022076, "excess_performance": -0.15217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024027, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054784, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114687, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140746, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022076, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.105664, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063138, "annualized_volatility": 0.446879, "from_high_reference": -0.189125, "from_low_reference": 0.402086 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.351452, "fair_value_reference": 35.48595, "structural_low": 35.169998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004646, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.029976, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.094686, "worst_return": -0.183945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012045, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028893, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.165027, "worst_return": -0.209066, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.056232, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.117799, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.202936, "worst_return": -0.090472, "sufficient": false }, 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.081629, "energy": 13.229961, "activity_lines": [ 37.833369, 38.683165, 39.42796, 38.68284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 35.380001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 316.05, "trend": 37.192067, "fair_value": 35.599852, "relative_strength": -15.488404, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.278726, "energy": 35.539369, "activity_lines": [ 36.979976, 37.951167, 39.034852, 38.572634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.790001, "volume": 268, "typical_volume": 296.8, "trend": 37.363813, "fair_value": 35.581641, "relative_strength": -10.836147, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.873162, "energy": 36.601728, "activity_lines": [ 36.718001, 37.567448, 38.784735, 38.546694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.939999, "volume": 97, "typical_volume": 301.5, "trend": 37.604535, "fair_value": 35.556136, "relative_strength": -6.256726, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.431007, "energy": 28.908975, "activity_lines": [ 36.963334, 37.510683, 38.64568, 38.583867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.619999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 229.5, "trend": 37.895459, "fair_value": 35.534472, "relative_strength": -3.515598, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.24047, "energy": 8.468874, "activity_lines": [ 37.896, 37.771374, 38.658171, 38.713897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.73, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 229.5, "trend": 38.13154, "fair_value": 35.514839, "relative_strength": -5.690771, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.710479, "energy": 7.339049, "activity_lines": [ 38.327333, 37.903828, 38.580447, 38.767739 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.43, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 229.5, "trend": 38.351452, "fair_value": 35.48595, "relative_strength": -11.468668, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.100902, "energy": 11.006904, "activity_lines": [ 38.24, 37.83363, 38.386224, 38.722478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }