{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c3879ec-235a-40d4-b158-a611fbfc126c", "symbol": "SRP", "name": "SRP Groupe S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.036, "architecture_energy": 26.55, "architecture_maturity": 33.541, "architecture_confidence": 64.364, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.87, "rotation_up": 40.11, "upward_expansion": 69.13, "deceleration": 67.63, "rotation_down": 23.62, "downward_expansion": 7.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.7928, 0.7864, 0.781781, 0.762422 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.8, "trend_reference": 0.749467, "distance_from_trend": 0.067426, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.812173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014988, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.165432, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.038961, "excess_performance": -0.01435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067426, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162204, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194241, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.181654, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038961, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.111072, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 285046, "relative_activity": 1.512228, "balance": 4.111072, "dry_up": 0.852041, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078846, "annualized_volatility": 0.463088, "from_high_reference": -0.111111, "from_low_reference": 1.332362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.749467, "fair_value_reference": 0.812173, "structural_low": 0.572, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0078, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001363, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.387302, "worst_return": -0.14604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.02, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.143983, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.324921, "worst_return": -0.10574, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.323834, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.383591, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.209668, "worst_return": -0.438, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009217, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071749, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.381868, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.263333, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": 20.921608, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.696075, "energy": 21.722646, "activity_lines": [ 0.769333, 0.790764, 0.766867, 0.751299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.796, "volume": 241212, "typical_volume": 210568.5, "trend": 0.741533, "fair_value": 0.818417, "relative_strength": 24.371161, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.395957, "energy": 19.04531, "activity_lines": [ 0.778, 0.787964, 0.77241, 0.755557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.796, "volume": 57894, "typical_volume": 199864.4, "trend": 0.748067, "fair_value": 0.815378, "relative_strength": 21.360767, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.919196, "energy": 26.242028, "activity_lines": [ 0.787067, 0.785964, 0.777181, 0.759071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8, "volume": 285046, "typical_volume": 188494.1, "trend": 0.749467, "fair_value": 0.812173, "relative_strength": 18.165432, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.036005, "energy": 26.549945, "activity_lines": [ 0.7928, 0.7864, 0.781781, 0.762422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }