{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c3a77aa-0a07-4c1c-8627-15a9436a1b9d", "symbol": "NAS", "name": "Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.85, "architecture_energy": 73.024, "architecture_maturity": 12.087, "architecture_confidence": 78.254, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.29, "rotation_up": 8.29, "upward_expansion": 15.95, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 77.08, "downward_expansion": 91.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.102, 13.693727, 14.172766, 14.276735 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.425, "trend_reference": 14.530577, "distance_from_trend": -0.076086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.333281, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088518, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.34929, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.145805, "excess_performance": -0.270799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076086, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035582, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088518, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12639, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203493, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062769, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145805, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.167753, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39632776, "relative_activity": 1.046509, "balance": 1.167753, "dry_up": 0.922573, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075376, "annualized_volatility": 0.401374, "from_high_reference": -0.215984, "from_low_reference": 0.081789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.530577, "fair_value_reference": 12.333281, "structural_low": 12.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.009338, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.018768, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.257576, "worst_return": -0.236613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.060022, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.001977, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.672042, "worst_return": -0.204766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011371, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.053861, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.813511, "worst_return": -0.141053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -16.967772, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.059655, "energy": 14.199849, "activity_lines": [ 14.725667, 15.003636, 14.685659, 14.738706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.885, "volume": 44650965, "typical_volume": 42775822.6, "trend": 14.839548, "fair_value": 12.257387, "relative_strength": -22.400219, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.282334, "energy": 39.453159, "activity_lines": [ 14.021667, 14.609182, 14.533091, 14.604877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.615, "volume": 29810520, "typical_volume": 40882144.6, "trend": 14.714373, "fair_value": 12.280424, "relative_strength": -25.396789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.045398, "energy": 67.387061, "activity_lines": [ 13.377667, 14.195636, 14.368405, 14.461358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.02, "volume": 25662338, "typical_volume": 39678224.0, "trend": 14.592278, "fair_value": 12.305109, "relative_strength": -22.889282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.041805, "energy": 73.757743, "activity_lines": [ 13.084333, 13.886455, 14.249413, 14.352044 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.425, "volume": 39632776, "typical_volume": 37871408.05, "trend": 14.530577, "fair_value": 12.333281, "relative_strength": -20.34929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.849849, "energy": 73.023968, "activity_lines": [ 13.102, 13.693727, 14.172766, 14.276735 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }