{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c3d9b31-3826-41bb-a66a-7eb1a98230b3", "symbol": "CLBX", "name": "CelLBxHealth plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.73, "architecture_energy": 14.046, "architecture_maturity": 53.485, "architecture_confidence": 70.437, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.89, "rotation_up": 17.46, "upward_expansion": 44.67, "deceleration": 86.61, "rotation_down": 39.2, "downward_expansion": 29.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.013033, 0.013886, 0.014175, 0.013278 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0135, "trend_reference": 0.012258, "distance_from_trend": 0.101292, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.087542, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.845789, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.384062, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.285714, "excess_performance": 0.234479, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101292, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046975, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.845789, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050514, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.343841, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.371851, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.285714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.374023, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9185012, "relative_activity": 0.41775, "balance": 2.374023, "dry_up": 0.314139, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.276011, "annualized_volatility": 0.861408, "from_high_reference": -0.831144, "from_low_reference": 0.588235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.012258, "fair_value_reference": 0.087542, "structural_low": 0.0085, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.057239, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.070708, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.179039, "worst_return": -0.162162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046588, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.008333, "worst_return": -0.216216, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.33786, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.40108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.01626, "worst_return": -0.659459, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.390374, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.228395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.204082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027027, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083871, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01275, "volume": 3290276, "typical_volume": 21894042.9, "trend": 0.0121, "fair_value": 0.089089, "relative_strength": -42.883699, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.065885, "energy": 19.374937, "activity_lines": [ 0.01335, 0.0149, 0.014138, 0.013149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01275, "volume": 3259269, "typical_volume": 21797590.75, "trend": 0.012158, "fair_value": 0.088273, "relative_strength": -40.585776, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.950965, "energy": 18.176966, "activity_lines": [ 0.012983, 0.014282, 0.014129, 0.013191 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0135, "volume": 9185012, "typical_volume": 21986866.85, "trend": 0.012258, "fair_value": 0.087542, "relative_strength": -34.384062, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.729841, "energy": 14.045998, "activity_lines": [ 0.013033, 0.013886, 0.014175, 0.013278 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }