{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c473d83-b7b0-4242-b884-a56608543db1", "symbol": "SPEEU", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy S&P 500 Scored", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.162, "architecture_energy": 70.686, "architecture_maturity": 92.248, "architecture_confidence": 66.374, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.53, "rotation_up": 55.57, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.5, "rotation_down": 29.41, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.578667, 18.505345, 18.222019, 17.806624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.058001, "trend_reference": 17.322933, "distance_from_trend": 0.10016, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.666705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299406, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.142687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.152516, "excess_performance": -0.018376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10016, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042637, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.299406, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062312, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021427, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005235, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152516, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.881899, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1060, "relative_activity": 0.045291, "balance": 2.881899, "dry_up": 1.156, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015774, "annualized_volatility": 0.110915, "from_high_reference": -0.001781, "from_low_reference": 0.262788 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.322933, "fair_value_reference": 14.666705, "structural_low": 15.65, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.000501, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.008763, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.05445, "worst_return": -0.10556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027584, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021391, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.088842, "worst_return": -0.17577, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.006423, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.086646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.080248, "worst_return": -0.067402, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023992, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.07853, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05094, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021338, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 18.359733, 18.376218, 18.085247, 17.689725 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.058001, "volume": 1060, "typical_volume": 23404.2, "trend": 17.322933, "fair_value": 14.666705, "relative_strength": -2.142687, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.161509, "energy": 70.686348, "activity_lines": [ 18.578667, 18.505345, 18.222019, 17.806624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }