{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c4b8fb6-1005-4833-a64f-9fb2a4ab9b3f", "symbol": "DSG", "name": "Dillistone Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.967, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.97, "architecture_energy": 25.858, "architecture_maturity": 30.505, "architecture_confidence": 85.73, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.87, "rotation_up": 24.54, "upward_expansion": 14.99, "deceleration": 39.7, "rotation_down": 36.47, "downward_expansion": 64.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.106833, 0.1059, 0.109867, 0.11287 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.11, "trend_reference": 0.112967, "distance_from_trend": -0.026261, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.101821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.080332, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.427243, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073171, "excess_performance": 0.021935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059062, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.080332, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055815, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014272, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073171, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.861751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 305558, "relative_activity": 1.25617, "balance": 0.861751, "dry_up": 1.202382, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.447599, "from_high_reference": -0.290323, "from_low_reference": 0.375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.112967, "fair_value_reference": 0.101821, "structural_low": 0.091, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.04929, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.04878, "worst_return": -0.228571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.117527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.529412, "worst_return": -0.257143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.088889, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.161579, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235294, "worst_return": -0.342857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.37619, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.421739, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.266667, "worst_return": -0.485714, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.275862, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.205882, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073171, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.165, "volume": 20000, "typical_volume": 9527.3, "trend": 0.184, "fair_value": 0.195978, "relative_strength": -0.928495, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.419975, "energy": 38.887132, 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"fair_value": 0.103583, "relative_strength": -4.662221, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.741583, "energy": 48.52274, "activity_lines": [ 0.104033, 0.107509, 0.113824, 0.114119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1025, "volume": 597677, "typical_volume": 308963.5, "trend": 0.110717, "fair_value": 0.103119, "relative_strength": -5.529293, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.930276, "energy": 46.535939, "activity_lines": [ 0.103267, 0.106027, 0.112245, 0.113627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.105, "volume": 81414, "typical_volume": 250640.25, "trend": 0.111383, "fair_value": 0.10267, "relative_strength": -4.433394, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.232066, "energy": 42.345151, "activity_lines": [ 0.1035, 0.105364, 0.111107, 0.113258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1075, "volume": 185248, "typical_volume": 238609.05, "trend": 0.112133, "fair_value": 0.102237, "relative_strength": -3.339448, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.350764, "energy": 26.02064, "activity_lines": [ 0.104833, 0.105336, 0.110314, 0.113008 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.11, "volume": 305558, "typical_volume": 243245.7, "trend": 0.112967, "fair_value": 0.101821, "relative_strength": -1.427243, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.96965, "energy": 25.858419, "activity_lines": [ 0.106833, 0.1059, 0.109867, 0.11287 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }