{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c53a7c9-fca6-4aef-aea3-a307b17fefcd", "symbol": "000002", "name": "China Vanke Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.919, "architecture_energy": 39.128, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.216, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.62, "rotation_up": 27.65, "upward_expansion": 18.89, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 33.34, "downward_expansion": 64.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.198667, 3.153091, 3.303905, 3.547011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.22, "trend_reference": 3.915, "distance_from_trend": -0.177522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.452082, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.567906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.82971, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.340164, "excess_performance": -0.347564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163997, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.567906, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048342, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.368297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072834, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.340164, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.527445, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 700571164, "relative_activity": 1.358262, "balance": 0.527445, "dry_up": 1.42263, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079551, "annualized_volatility": 0.303585, "from_high_reference": -0.554017, "from_low_reference": 0.098976 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.915, "fair_value_reference": 7.452082, "structural_low": 2.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.030392, "positive_rate": 0.361702, "directional_follow_through": 0.638298, "median_excess_return": -0.015046, "regime_survival": 0.87234, "best_return": 0.439873, "worst_return": -0.236667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.068854, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031704, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.336257, "worst_return": -0.269926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.119703, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.11483, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.330422, "worst_return": -0.410806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 498086545.85, "trend": 4.010333, "fair_value": 7.579154, "relative_strength": -39.760934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.437476, "energy": 61.890847, "activity_lines": [ 3.084667, 3.116727, 3.358857, 3.638172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.34, "volume": 756080693, "typical_volume": 514638906.45, "trend": 3.962667, "fair_value": 7.516612, "relative_strength": -32.246544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.077101, "energy": 46.944128, "activity_lines": [ 3.172667, 3.144727, 3.333952, 3.594925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.22, "volume": 700571164, "typical_volume": 515784897.35, "trend": 3.915, "fair_value": 7.452082, "relative_strength": -36.82971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.918863, "energy": 39.128115, "activity_lines": [ 3.198667, 3.153091, 3.303905, 3.547011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }