{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c5638af-cbe9-4f10-9030-51b7f38bd1bb", "symbol": "9606", "name": "Altharwah Albashariyyah Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.583, "architecture_energy": 27.603, "architecture_maturity": 95.401, "architecture_confidence": 66.666, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.94, "rotation_up": 29.42, "upward_expansion": 29.62, "deceleration": 50.76, "rotation_down": 22.81, "downward_expansion": 53.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.244001, 27.729819, 27.67981, 29.421377 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.700001, "trend_reference": 31.88, "distance_from_trend": -0.131117, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.691495, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.335596, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.509898, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.251351, "excess_performance": -0.219522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126862, "read": "Falling" 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24.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029851, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.015539, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.098859, "worst_return": -0.223188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.282165, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.302035, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.282165, "worst_return": -0.282165, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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32.650667, "fair_value": 41.968925, "relative_strength": -17.574827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.806806, "energy": 32.209734, "activity_lines": [ 28.273333, 27.425455, 28.067524, 30.017333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.940001, "volume": 2557, "typical_volume": 7913.2, "trend": 32.226667, "fair_value": 41.830025, "relative_strength": -18.269991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.510333, "energy": 37.806448, "activity_lines": [ 28.353334, 27.617091, 27.865905, 29.713419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.700001, "volume": 5251, "typical_volume": 7402.85, "trend": 31.88, "fair_value": 41.691495, "relative_strength": -20.509898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.582991, "energy": 27.603108, "activity_lines": [ 28.244001, 27.729819, 27.67981, 29.421377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }