{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c58ec9c-ecc7-4070-b762-60ca065da23b", "symbol": "TPL", "name": "Texas Pacific Land Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.439, "architecture_energy": 32.514, "architecture_maturity": 23.529, "architecture_confidence": 88.768, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.02, "rotation_up": 27.54, "upward_expansion": 12.46, "deceleration": 45.9, "rotation_down": 39.46, "downward_expansion": 65.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 386.740667, 391.166545, 395.300992, 410.360678 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 340.65, "trend_reference": 418.400167, "distance_from_trend": -0.185827, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 318.642694, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.888559, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066769, "excess_performance": -0.192394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185827, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074821, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069066, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247486, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178886, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066769, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544454, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2393605, "relative_activity": 1.18342, "balance": 0.544454, "dry_up": 0.790723, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114763, "annualized_volatility": 0.533732, "from_high_reference": -0.375748, "from_low_reference": 0.268753 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 418.400167, "fair_value_reference": 318.642694, "structural_low": 340.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.029442, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.02308, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.173662, "worst_return": -0.178398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.294608, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.275368, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.34582, "worst_return": -0.190508, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.269415, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.228694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.694839, "worst_return": -0.266853, "sufficient": false }, { 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416.043263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 402.58, "volume": 1514466, "typical_volume": 2059046.4, "trend": 417.412211, "fair_value": 317.758066, "relative_strength": 0.401304, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.689849, "energy": 16.595445, "activity_lines": [ 409.373333, 401.133831, 402.427111, 415.313078 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 340.65, "volume": 2393605, "typical_volume": 2022616.85, "trend": 418.400167, "fair_value": 318.642694, "relative_strength": -17.888559, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.439184, "energy": 32.513867, "activity_lines": [ 386.740667, 391.166545, 395.300992, 410.360678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }