{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1c5ce7cf-cb54-4c44-95a4-f4e8f66b48b6",
    "symbol": "UTIL",
    "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Utilities UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 73.035,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 40.676,
    "architecture_energy": 25.554,
    "architecture_maturity": 97.36,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.818,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 46.86,
        "rotation_up": 44.22,
        "upward_expansion": 67.47,
        "deceleration": 59.44,
        "rotation_down": 19.3,
        "downward_expansion": 8.47
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        260.024462
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 262.350006,
    "trend_reference": 256.458333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.022973,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 192.966186,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.359565,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 1.914174,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.062684,
    "excess_performance": 0.011448,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022973,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054787,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.359565,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.031829,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019142,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.067701,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.062684,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.197362,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8151,
      "relative_activity": 0.250367,
      "balance": 2.197362,
      "dry_up": 0.835824,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.036072,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.213443,
      "from_high_reference": -0.035832,
      "from_low_reference": 0.357638
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 192.966186,
      "structural_low": 242.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 32,
        "median_return": 0.009465,
        "positive_rate": 0.5625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00053,
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        "best_return": 0.070008,
        "worst_return": -0.055192,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.079489,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": 0.020606,
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 33440.05,
        "trend": 252.848333,
        "fair_value": 190.900929,
        "relative_strength": 7.867489,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 58.325374,
        "activity_lines": [
          266.029997,
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          258.103601
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 269.100006,
        "volume": 8012,
        "typical_volume": 32957.15,
        "trend": 254.42,
        "fair_value": 191.593173,
        "relative_strength": 6.482949,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.83624,
        "energy": 59.761691,
        "activity_lines": [
          267.54,
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          261.380951,
          259.152096
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 261.100006,
        "volume": 82926,
        "typical_volume": 34030.05,
        "trend": 255.508333,
        "fair_value": 192.278109,
        "relative_strength": 1.902626,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.148099,
        "energy": 33.442713,
        "activity_lines": [
          265.630003,
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          261.530475,
          259.583064
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 262.350006,
        "volume": 8151,
        "typical_volume": 32556.2,
        "trend": 256.458333,
        "fair_value": 192.966186,
        "relative_strength": 1.914174,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.676411,
        "energy": 25.553651,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}