{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c5d42c4-d364-42fb-be6f-9fd82de0a83a", "symbol": "CAI", "name": "Cairo Communication S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.209, "architecture_energy": 27.094, "architecture_maturity": 19.118, "architecture_confidence": 68.681, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.99, "rotation_up": 11.24, "upward_expansion": 10.03, "deceleration": 61.45, "rotation_down": 57.24, "downward_expansion": 66.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.383667, 2.421, 2.41146, 2.416394 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.365, "trend_reference": 2.441696, "distance_from_trend": -0.031411, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.193309, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.078279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.026128, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07984, "excess_performance": -0.250732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031411, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015433, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.078279, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049323, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190261, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000849, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07984, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.545481, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1726025, "relative_activity": 1.786018, "balance": 0.545481, "dry_up": 1.512789, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050866, "annualized_volatility": 0.210978, "from_high_reference": -0.140459, "from_low_reference": 0.064536 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.441696, "fair_value_reference": 2.193309, "structural_low": 2.221625, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.00354, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.015512, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.089965, "worst_return": -0.115958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036991, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.006401, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.198068, "worst_return": -0.065256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.114673, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.044608, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.379227, "worst_return": -0.061947, "sufficient": true 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"2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.061947, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008529, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.4018, "volume": 527638, "typical_volume": 901643.05, "trend": 1.438662, "fair_value": 1.284612, "relative_strength": -4.33732, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.875889, "energy": 34.344501, "activity_lines": [ 2.496, 2.44675, 2.421307, 2.435216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.45, "volume": 2058575, "typical_volume": 880517.85, "trend": 2.463456, "fair_value": 2.176176, "relative_strength": -14.620566, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.890623, "energy": 27.884452, "activity_lines": [ 2.485, 2.453473, 2.424315, 2.434299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.385, "volume": 1104409, "typical_volume": 897811.25, "trend": 2.458367, "fair_value": 2.181822, "relative_strength": -16.280448, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.416671, "energy": 15.15282, "activity_lines": [ 2.453667, 2.447182, 2.421616, 2.429237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.345, "volume": 958889, "typical_volume": 919332.9, "trend": 2.450705, "fair_value": 2.187146, "relative_strength": -17.77228, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.188751, "energy": 21.475853, "activity_lines": [ 2.410667, 2.432, 2.415481, 2.421923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.365, "volume": 1726025, "typical_volume": 966409.75, "trend": 2.441696, "fair_value": 2.193309, "relative_strength": -19.026128, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.20933, "energy": 27.09389, "activity_lines": [ 2.383667, 2.421, 2.41146, 2.416394 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }