{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c5fea5d-7b14-414e-bfb4-57577614af9d", "symbol": "LNDR", "name": "Landi Renzo S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.018, "architecture_energy": 51.372, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.914, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.59, "rotation_up": 27.9, "upward_expansion": 12.89, "deceleration": 60.92, "rotation_down": 50.03, "downward_expansion": 77.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.645467, 0.6508, 0.690786, 0.730471 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.634, "trend_reference": 0.7931, "distance_from_trend": -0.200605, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.108755, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.699349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.332316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.330517, "excess_performance": -0.501409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092044, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.699349, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.373323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076241, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.330517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.683884, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76340, "relative_activity": 1.003827, "balance": 0.683884, "dry_up": 1.434474, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087115, "annualized_volatility": 0.231348, "from_high_reference": -0.471667, "from_low_reference": 0.093103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.7931, "fair_value_reference": 2.108755, "structural_low": 0.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.043393, "positive_rate": 0.22449, "directional_follow_through": 0.755102, "median_excess_return": -0.058497, "regime_survival": 0.897959, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.304922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.157118, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.182392, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.183505, "worst_return": -0.316508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.246558, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.364723, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.036415, "worst_return": -0.425121, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-01-06", "end": "2023-02-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-02-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010545, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-05-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074733, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005929, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.662, "volume": 129463, "typical_volume": 72779.75, "trend": 0.822633, "fair_value": 2.169435, "relative_strength": -33.890103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.220969, "energy": 59.543172, "activity_lines": [ 0.650133, 0.666764, 0.710876, 0.753391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.64, "volume": 65083, "typical_volume": 74399.25, "trend": 0.806633, "fair_value": 2.138729, "relative_strength": -35.669939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.794875, "energy": 53.882204, "activity_lines": [ 0.648933, 0.658327, 0.700686, 0.741609 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.634, "volume": 76340, "typical_volume": 76048.95, "trend": 0.7931, "fair_value": 2.108755, "relative_strength": -37.332316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.017818, "energy": 51.371583, "activity_lines": [ 0.645467, 0.6508, 0.690786, 0.730471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }