{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c611df5-7009-405a-a224-8b2fa7373100", "symbol": "HRTX", "name": "Heron Therapeuti", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.088, "architecture_energy": 48.222, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.657, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.2, "rotation_up": 27.7, "upward_expansion": 21.48, "deceleration": 45.88, "rotation_down": 36.98, "downward_expansion": 66.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.477467, 0.458065, 0.589609, 0.694673 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.4908, "trend_reference": 0.858767, "distance_from_trend": -0.428483, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.702456, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.711711, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -59.016194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.610476, "excess_performance": -0.79793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.428483, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.711711, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.396187, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.590162, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310858, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.610476, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.822588, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8131864, "relative_activity": 0.594793, "balance": 0.822588, "dry_up": 0.777034, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.239389, "annualized_volatility": 1.244465, "from_high_reference": -0.688381, "from_low_reference": 0.284817 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.858767, "fair_value_reference": 1.702456, "structural_low": 0.382, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.029871, "positive_rate": 0.452381, "directional_follow_through": 0.547619, "median_excess_return": -0.048549, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 1.201659, "worst_return": -0.646777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.157049, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.23946, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.650485, "worst_return": -0.546218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.238671, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.180453, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.475, "worst_return": -0.61954, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.349727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029289, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.197479, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.308901, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": 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0.695719, 0.81083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.4707, "volume": 19996088, "typical_volume": 13990626.5, "trend": 0.941673, "fair_value": 1.724233, "relative_strength": -62.073452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.432754, "energy": 64.402344, "activity_lines": [ 0.440253, 0.479033, 0.664216, 0.778661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4558, "volume": 6665749, "typical_volume": 13731822.0, "trend": 0.9142, "fair_value": 1.717155, "relative_strength": -61.552037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.368243, "energy": 62.130956, "activity_lines": [ 0.447453, 0.460498, 0.63472, 0.747314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4962, "volume": 7699964, "typical_volume": 13745800.55, "trend": 0.88874, "fair_value": 1.709695, "relative_strength": -57.262358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.366901, "energy": 54.110411, "activity_lines": [ 0.465567, 0.456476, 0.611504, 0.720347 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4908, "volume": 8131864, "typical_volume": 13671749.65, "trend": 0.858767, "fair_value": 1.702456, "relative_strength": -59.016194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.088436, "energy": 48.221821, "activity_lines": [ 0.477467, 0.458065, 0.589609, 0.694673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }