{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c69254a-841e-4ca1-97ee-e6bae693a5b2", "symbol": "GVIP", "name": "GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRUST HEDGE IND VIP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.343, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.382, "architecture_energy": 22.241, "architecture_maturity": 63.715, "architecture_confidence": 78.327, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.12, "rotation_up": 24.31, "upward_expansion": 56.51, "deceleration": 88.27, "rotation_down": 36.59, "downward_expansion": 20.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 172.470653, 175.174009, 174.636368, 170.383127 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 175.25, "trend_reference": 165.495647, "distance_from_trend": 0.05894, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 127.88947, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.370324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.71614, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119289, "excess_performance": -0.006336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05894, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048839, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.370324, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090923, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119289, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.582436, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48269, "relative_activity": 0.781319, "balance": 0.582436, "dry_up": 0.943134, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052358, "annualized_volatility": 0.221181, "from_high_reference": -0.087857, "from_low_reference": 0.270984 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 165.495647, "fair_value_reference": 127.88947, "structural_low": 138.7301, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.021797, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.005055, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.070893, "worst_return": -0.070495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031729, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.01322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152851, "worst_return": -0.101372, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.170037, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.056767, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278691, "worst_return": 0.106683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06347, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164039, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050683, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007419, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 63.222416, "energy": 54.169, "activity_lines": [ 181.19694, 179.44336, 173.171173, 168.47378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 172.5387, "volume": 53773, "typical_volume": 63984.1, "trend": 164.07259, "fair_value": 126.251784, "relative_strength": 0.784178, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.279542, "energy": 36.799883, "activity_lines": [ 178.37156, 178.451565, 173.75642, 169.061163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 170.8023, "volume": 68227, "typical_volume": 64426.6, "trend": 164.5433, "fair_value": 126.786677, "relative_strength": 0.293342, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.196276, "energy": 23.915213, "activity_lines": [ 175.278033, 177.199218, 174.099445, 169.495338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 167.99, "volume": 62794, "typical_volume": 61556.7, "trend": 164.93598, "fair_value": 127.311344, "relative_strength": -2.429536, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.853195, "energy": 20.05224, "activity_lines": [ 172.228253, 175.469645, 174.070859, 169.717706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 175.25, "volume": 48269, "typical_volume": 61778.85, "trend": 165.495647, "fair_value": 127.88947, "relative_strength": -1.71614, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.381638, "energy": 22.240639, "activity_lines": [ 172.470653, 175.174009, 174.636368, 170.383127 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }