{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c6a2e3c-37df-4e52-ac2f-401deb193e7e", "symbol": "TX", "name": "Ternium S.A.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.652, "architecture_energy": 88.644, "architecture_maturity": 18.333, "architecture_confidence": 78.676, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.89, "rotation_up": 78.35, "upward_expansion": 90.3, "deceleration": 47.73, "rotation_down": 11.39, "downward_expansion": 21.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 850.738004, 820.211822, 805.60951, 785.853541 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 922.0, "trend_reference": 765.678261, "distance_from_trend": 0.204161, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 672.604736, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.37079, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.515891, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.211987, "excess_performance": 0.266654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.204161, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061669, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.37079, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210106, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.255159, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.199111, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.211987, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.970896, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1852, "relative_activity": 1.680276, "balance": 1.970896, "dry_up": 2.385456, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039086, "annualized_volatility": 0.286937, "from_high_reference": -0.000325, "from_low_reference": 0.568232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 765.678261, "fair_value_reference": 672.604736, "structural_low": 667.648987, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.010837, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.014254, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.159217, "worst_return": -0.108176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0326, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.004125, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.202171, "worst_return": -0.207635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023071, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.049548, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.105408, "worst_return": -0.359728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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820.211822, 805.60951, 785.853541 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }