{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c6e7f9f-6676-4d7a-81a4-47f99a23c0d8", "symbol": "TSCO", "name": "Tractor Supply Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.875, "architecture_energy": 45.773, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.796, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.0, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 24.96, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 41.44, "downward_expansion": 65.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.505333, 27.304727, 27.718309, 30.237562 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.219999, "trend_reference": 34.074381, "distance_from_trend": -0.142464, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.174796, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.323216, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.206839, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.358507, "excess_performance": -0.532754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142464, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146819, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.323216, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08155, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.412068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09036, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.358507, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.529303, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 613, "relative_activity": 2.476768, "balance": 0.529303, "dry_up": 2.89798, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054948, "annualized_volatility": 0.384451, "from_high_reference": -0.446952, "from_low_reference": 0.168754 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.074381, "fair_value_reference": 43.174796, "structural_low": 25.000986, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.003337, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010945, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.130532, "worst_return": -0.19623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019107, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.053851, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.069404, "worst_return": -0.253739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007877, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.161751, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.197905, "worst_return": -0.340153, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.249192, "energy": 58.3917, "activity_lines": [ 27.138, 26.87147, 29.161133, 32.298532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.245001, "volume": 823, "typical_volume": 145.2, "trend": 35.619114, "fair_value": 43.38513, "relative_strength": -45.436338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.319705, "energy": 52.264727, "activity_lines": [ 27.192, 26.97436, 28.676669, 31.723576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.555, "volume": 1307, "typical_volume": 210.55, "trend": 35.090763, "fair_value": 43.309136, "relative_strength": -46.698249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.943567, "energy": 57.870647, "activity_lines": [ 26.997, 26.93343, 28.201277, 31.138794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.455, "volume": 126, "typical_volume": 216.85, "trend": 34.553328, "fair_value": 43.232743, "relative_strength": -46.018907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.098765, "energy": 62.225529, "activity_lines": [ 26.755667, 26.863364, 27.792993, 30.581648 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.219999, "volume": 613, "typical_volume": 247.5, "trend": 34.074381, "fair_value": 43.174796, "relative_strength": -41.206839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.875363, "energy": 45.772724, "activity_lines": [ 27.505333, 27.304727, 27.718309, 30.237562 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }