{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c7354a8-6402-4a3b-aaf9-3852a8bc734e", "symbol": "KNOS", "name": "Kainos Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 62.994, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.501, "architecture_energy": 57.537, "architecture_maturity": 37.441, "architecture_confidence": 68.862, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.95, "rotation_up": 70.46, "upward_expansion": 82.86, "deceleration": 48.59, "rotation_down": 14.51, "downward_expansion": 14.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 870.133333, 836.509091, 830.283333, 818.925806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 933.5, "trend_reference": 816.7, "distance_from_trend": 0.143015, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 912.116092, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023444, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.885293, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.212338, "excess_performance": 0.161102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.143015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023444, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167457, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008853, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082427, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.212338, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.338937, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1085872, "relative_activity": 0.705013, "balance": 2.338937, "dry_up": 1.081196, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076396, "annualized_volatility": 0.39109, "from_high_reference": -0.215546, "from_low_reference": 0.3722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 816.7, "fair_value_reference": 912.116092, "structural_low": 686.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.033881, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.042402, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.263083, "worst_return": -0.201521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.116197, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.145762, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287127, "worst_return": -0.303302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.104923, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.145016, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.458045, "worst_return": -0.260813, 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022181, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.081522, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005532, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.048452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-09", 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"typical_volume": 1626785.75, "trend": 819.65, "fair_value": 914.362232, "relative_strength": -6.071013, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.835261, "energy": 15.002174, "activity_lines": [ 830.2, 815.372727, 818.37619, 811.580645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 933.5, "volume": 1085872, "typical_volume": 1540215.45, "trend": 816.7, "fair_value": 912.116092, "relative_strength": -0.885293, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.500875, "energy": 57.537156, "activity_lines": [ 870.133333, 836.509091, 830.283333, 818.925806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }