{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c7521c2-4004-431a-9bdf-113f4a1dff6b", "symbol": "600615", "name": "Chongqing Fenghwa Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.612, "architecture_energy": 54.017, "architecture_maturity": 50.115, "architecture_confidence": 86.459, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 16.43, "upward_expansion": 8.82, "deceleration": 46.5, "rotation_down": 62.79, "downward_expansion": 82.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.783333, 9.058182, 9.781143, 10.336925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.09, "trend_reference": 11.037333, "distance_from_trend": -0.176432, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.010804, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091981, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.417861, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.287618, "excess_performance": -0.244414, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176432, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069234, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091981, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.311, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214179, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122077, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.287618, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.949418, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9866650, "relative_activity": 0.643011, "balance": 0.949418, "dry_up": 0.720476, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129728, "annualized_volatility": 0.495345, "from_high_reference": -0.39881, "from_low_reference": 0.171392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.037333, "fair_value_reference": 10.010804, "structural_low": 7.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.024014, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.002844, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.079196, "worst_return": -0.162479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019077, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.077704, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.397554, "worst_return": -0.274236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.237229, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.225246, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.359952, "worst_return": -0.321078, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-76.267661, "energy": 68.635836, "activity_lines": [ 9.245333, 9.617455, 10.343905, 10.818602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.31, "volume": 11951534, "typical_volume": 16283811.05, "trend": 11.189667, "fair_value": 9.992172, "relative_strength": -26.943824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.209326, "energy": 64.644811, "activity_lines": [ 8.85, 9.304727, 10.099381, 10.626387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.72, "volume": 8274381, "typical_volume": 15603438.75, "trend": 11.107, "fair_value": 10.000889, "relative_strength": -23.086152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.602011, "energy": 65.059784, "activity_lines": [ 8.742, 9.117636, 9.913238, 10.467054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.09, "volume": 9866650, "typical_volume": 15344451.9, "trend": 11.037333, "fair_value": 10.010804, "relative_strength": -21.417861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.612448, "energy": 54.016929, "activity_lines": [ 8.783333, 9.058182, 9.781143, 10.336925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }