{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c77602c-8bc7-4a23-9c9e-af114ead8a07", "symbol": "KURE", "name": "KRANESHARES TRUST MSCI ALL CHINA HEALTH CARE INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.049, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.969, "architecture_energy": 46.964, "architecture_maturity": 9.05, "architecture_confidence": 78.441, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.05, "rotation_up": 74.6, "upward_expansion": 49.05, "deceleration": 23.77, "rotation_down": 14.17, "downward_expansion": 19.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.61028, 16.919738, 16.606879, 16.737057 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.5399, "trend_reference": 17.038457, "distance_from_trend": 0.088121, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.865064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168599, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.6268, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028851, "excess_performance": -0.096774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088121, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034083, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168599, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088384, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069199, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028851, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.652794, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 245722, "relative_activity": 1.261657, "balance": 1.652794, "dry_up": 1.725389, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054867, "annualized_volatility": 0.283433, "from_high_reference": -0.118239, "from_low_reference": 0.289311 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.038457, "fair_value_reference": 15.865064, "structural_low": 14.3797, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01671, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.007675, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.150385, "worst_return": -0.059336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07109, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.115137, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083135, "worst_return": -0.182697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.002346, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015112, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.308483, "worst_return": -0.23527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150989, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086752, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.191838, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 159217.85, "trend": 17.103787, "fair_value": 15.86192, "relative_strength": -14.882775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.146927, "energy": 22.883883, "activity_lines": [ 16.047567, 15.806845, 16.264499, 16.633143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.8567, "volume": 805682, "typical_volume": 187153.3, "trend": 17.06942, "fair_value": 15.859627, "relative_strength": -13.802073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.005976, "energy": 22.607846, "activity_lines": [ 16.436693, 15.981216, 16.290442, 16.617202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.2112, "volume": 179726, "typical_volume": 190668.9, "trend": 17.053793, "fair_value": 15.852752, "relative_strength": -11.097292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.767329, "energy": 24.775736, "activity_lines": [ 16.832107, 16.227375, 16.353496, 16.626349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.28, "volume": 113027, "typical_volume": 188629.25, "trend": 17.050127, "fair_value": 15.85224, "relative_strength": -11.241133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.79727, "energy": 32.533429, "activity_lines": [ 17.08304, 16.47002, 16.421573, 16.640943 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.5399, "volume": 245722, "typical_volume": 194761.4, "trend": 17.038457, "fair_value": 15.865064, "relative_strength": -7.6268, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.969434, "energy": 46.963978, "activity_lines": [ 17.61028, 16.919738, 16.606879, 16.737057 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }