{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c81d215-4a4f-40f7-9d2f-475eb6d7945b", "symbol": "VTA", "name": "Vita Resources NL", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.512, "architecture_energy": 81.828, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.409, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.17, "rotation_up": 11.19, "upward_expansion": 17.62, "deceleration": 38.82, "rotation_down": 73.44, "downward_expansion": 88.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0246, 0.027273, 0.030638, 0.033168 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.036633, "distance_from_trend": -0.454049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.19131, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.895458, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.71829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.512195, "excess_performance": -0.575901, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.454049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095473, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.895458, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031032, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.557183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244006, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.512195, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.110432, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 878603, "relative_activity": 2.077534, "balance": 0.110432, "dry_up": 3.242652, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230769, "annualized_volatility": 0.762853, "from_high_reference": -0.75, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.036633, "fair_value_reference": 0.19131, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.095454, "positive_rate": 0.291667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.113203, "regime_survival": 0.958333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.199997, "positive_rate": 0.066667, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.21794, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.114286, "worst_return": -0.659341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.500002, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.473166, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.25, "worst_return": -0.692308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"typical_volume": 206447.4, "trend": 0.0376, "fair_value": 0.201114, "relative_strength": -32.29546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.653704, "energy": 68.58446, "activity_lines": [ 0.029867, 0.031127, 0.033276, 0.03529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.022, "volume": 3960641, "typical_volume": 379139.25, "trend": 0.0373, "fair_value": 0.195816, "relative_strength": -50.639921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.875373, "energy": 70.815963, "activity_lines": [ 0.027333, 0.029291, 0.032014, 0.034284 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 878603, "typical_volume": 422906.65, "trend": 0.036633, "fair_value": 0.19131, "relative_strength": -55.71829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.511753, "energy": 81.827945, "activity_lines": [ 0.0246, 0.027273, 0.030638, 0.033168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }