{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c8457fe-3233-48dc-8334-10701362c715", "symbol": "601366", "name": "Liqun Commercial Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.996, "architecture_energy": 36.332, "architecture_maturity": 99.804, "architecture_confidence": 82.256, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.35, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 17.83, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 32.8, "downward_expansion": 63.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.455333, 3.420289, 3.548848, 3.741613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.48, "trend_reference": 4.074974, "distance_from_trend": -0.146007, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.801252, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275189, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.258707, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.316306, "excess_performance": -0.273103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146007, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275189, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010835, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.316306, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.87907, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44333800, "relative_activity": 1.132607, "balance": 0.87907, "dry_up": 1.212515, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068703, "annualized_volatility": 0.265925, "from_high_reference": -0.4613, "from_low_reference": 0.106329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.074974, "fair_value_reference": 4.801252, "structural_low": 3.145539, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.010969, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.003041, "regime_survival": 0.69697, "best_return": 0.108889, "worst_return": -0.089675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015052, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.010073, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.177778, "worst_return": -0.120907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.032017, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.007657, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.162222, "worst_return": -0.112832, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 3.31, "volume": 45535100, "typical_volume": 41512484.4, "trend": 4.179307, "fair_value": 4.826772, "relative_strength": -21.801276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.909316, "energy": 59.153977, "activity_lines": [ 3.378291, 3.410443, 3.594793, 3.825545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.52, "volume": 41809706, "typical_volume": 40458001.85, "trend": 4.12164, "fair_value": 4.814837, "relative_strength": -16.657657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.818508, "energy": 42.870657, "activity_lines": [ 3.435314, 3.41682, 3.571511, 3.783009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.48, "volume": 44333800, "typical_volume": 39143160.55, "trend": 4.074974, "fair_value": 4.801252, "relative_strength": -19.258707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.996233, "energy": 36.331738, "activity_lines": [ 3.455333, 3.420289, 3.548848, 3.741613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }