{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c84c793-fab4-43e5-ab60-94edc1bd71b6", "symbol": "MRDN", "name": "Meridian Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 94.124, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.041, "architecture_energy": 28.312, "architecture_maturity": 53.342, "architecture_confidence": 90.576, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.68, "rotation_up": 34.96, "upward_expansion": 62.33, "deceleration": 87.04, "rotation_down": 25.47, "downward_expansion": 14.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.205333, 13.376364, 12.545524, 11.496346 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.42, "trend_reference": 10.197407, "distance_from_trend": 0.414085, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.669947, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.390789, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.857741, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.107078, "excess_performance": 0.919625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.414085, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136747, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.390789, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067612, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.168577, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.297525, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.107078, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687013, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 449880, "relative_activity": 1.560147, "balance": 0.687013, "dry_up": 1.381716, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170804, "annualized_volatility": 1.176516, "from_high_reference": -0.234607, "from_low_reference": 1.486378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.197407, "fair_value_reference": 23.669947, "structural_low": 5.7996, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02834, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.062028, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.522727, "worst_return": -0.157088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.10959, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.213647, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.02834, "worst_return": -0.19084, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.016009, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.117881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.206107, "worst_return": -0.174089, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.141221, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.545213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.141221, "worst_return": -0.141221, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078498, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.458333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.411765, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134921, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033195, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.281481, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.264706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.3309, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088542, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213264, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 35.4, "volume": 542227, "typical_volume": 151124.95, "trend": 30.54984, "fair_value": 63.715077, "relative_strength": -7.897185, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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343470, "typical_volume": 342437.65, "trend": 9.675047, "fair_value": 23.989755, "relative_strength": 6.863225, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.18534, "energy": 50.304828, "activity_lines": [ 13.834333, 13.264727, 11.647095, 10.651224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.52, "volume": 355216, "typical_volume": 291331.75, "trend": 9.797353, "fair_value": 23.905653, "relative_strength": 8.932989, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.65226, "energy": 41.061565, "activity_lines": [ 13.702, 13.392455, 11.944119, 10.899286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.26, "volume": 299268, "typical_volume": 254715.9, "trend": 9.911353, "fair_value": 23.834499, "relative_strength": 10.414733, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.999874, "energy": 35.443833, "activity_lines": [ 13.536667, 13.471455, 12.185143, 11.122682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.27, "volume": 489349, "typical_volume": 273792.8, "trend": 9.98686, "fair_value": 23.742896, "relative_strength": -5.024301, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.642562, "energy": 22.999194, "activity_lines": [ 12.778667, 13.145727, 12.219357, 11.210337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.42, "volume": 449880, "typical_volume": 288357.5, "trend": 10.197407, "fair_value": 23.669947, "relative_strength": 16.857741, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.041381, "energy": 28.311962, "activity_lines": [ 13.205333, 13.376364, 12.545524, 11.496346 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }