{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c893c11-4ff6-4067-b548-6e30ea687bd6", "symbol": "PRCH", "name": "Porch Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.215, "architecture_energy": 56.024, "architecture_maturity": 66.392, "architecture_confidence": 80.472, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.19, "rotation_up": 56.22, "upward_expansion": 81.84, "deceleration": 68.07, "rotation_down": 24.78, "downward_expansion": 8.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.318667, 13.938182, 12.40581, 11.249204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.85, "trend_reference": 9.958667, "distance_from_trend": 0.591579, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.527699, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.428114, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 21.167499, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.186207, "excess_performance": 0.998753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.591579, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137462, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.428114, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.469368, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.211675, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.404366, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.186207, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.567339, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10737553, "relative_activity": 1.166911, "balance": 1.567339, "dry_up": 1.099253, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124107, "annualized_volatility": 0.802509, "from_high_reference": -0.184482, "from_low_reference": 1.492138 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.958667, "fair_value_reference": 6.527699, "structural_low": 6.55, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.144807, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.025323, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.429864, "worst_return": -0.632047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.236274, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.294349, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.675875, "worst_return": -0.64095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.493464, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.554322, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.970962, "worst_return": -0.738902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.298052, "energy": 90.573896, "activity_lines": [ 14.114667, 12.581455, 10.948857, 10.110688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.68, "volume": 8273488, "typical_volume": 8434065.5, "trend": 9.490667, "fair_value": 6.281033, "relative_strength": 7.527732, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.29277, "energy": 85.605666, "activity_lines": [ 14.235333, 12.948, 11.32419, 10.391161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.84, "volume": 6870757, "typical_volume": 8532717.6, "trend": 9.587667, "fair_value": 6.348661, "relative_strength": -4.776966, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.4933, "energy": 56.808425, "activity_lines": [ 13.516, 12.930727, 11.498238, 10.542731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.45, "volume": 14578131, "typical_volume": 8969106.6, "trend": 9.762, "fair_value": 6.433148, "relative_strength": 15.736249, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.819207, "energy": 53.77991, "activity_lines": [ 13.702667, 13.351636, 11.901714, 10.85643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.85, "volume": 10737553, "typical_volume": 9201687.45, "trend": 9.958667, "fair_value": 6.527699, "relative_strength": 21.167499, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.215265, "energy": 56.02442, "activity_lines": [ 14.318667, 13.938182, 12.40581, 11.249204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }