{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c8a42ef-37a6-4fab-98fe-9d4812065015", "symbol": "JCK", "name": "JCK International Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.548, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.443, "architecture_energy": 37.328, "architecture_maturity": 9.964, "architecture_confidence": 91.609, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.57, "rotation_up": 21.39, "upward_expansion": 11.09, "deceleration": 37.94, "rotation_down": 52.9, "downward_expansion": 79.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.121333, 0.123273, 0.125286, 0.126903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.129667, "distance_from_trend": -0.07455, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.218526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.450865, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.200411, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.142857, "excess_performance": -0.335182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07455, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002577, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.450865, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021811, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049317, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.231397, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8414000, "relative_activity": 1.786522, "balance": 1.231397, "dry_up": 0.911648, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089744, "annualized_volatility": 0.439174, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.129667, "fair_value_reference": 0.218526, "structural_low": 0.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.075, "positive_rate": 0.205128, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.071773, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.298246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.176471, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.14124, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.190476, "worst_return": -0.373832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.216981, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.25559, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": -0.071429, "worst_return": -0.53012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-53.322032, "energy": 38.203323, "activity_lines": [ 0.124667, 0.126545, 0.12719, 0.128946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.13, "volume": 3235500, "typical_volume": 6572860.0, "trend": 0.130667, "fair_value": 0.220833, "relative_strength": -17.789093, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.853228, "energy": 27.54207, "activity_lines": [ 0.126, 0.127091, 0.127381, 0.128903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.12, "volume": 2659500, "typical_volume": 4793110.0, "trend": 0.130333, "fair_value": 0.220064, "relative_strength": -23.68903, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.238046, "energy": 33.10004, "activity_lines": [ 0.124, 0.125636, 0.126667, 0.128215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.12, "volume": 2865400, "typical_volume": 4711700.0, "trend": 0.13, "fair_value": 0.219295, "relative_strength": -22.314146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.271164, "energy": 42.493107, "activity_lines": [ 0.122667, 0.124364, 0.125952, 0.127548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 8414000, "typical_volume": 4709710.0, "trend": 0.129667, "fair_value": 0.218526, "relative_strength": -21.200411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.443412, "energy": 37.328354, "activity_lines": [ 0.121333, 0.123273, 0.125286, 0.126903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }