{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c8b2d31-4497-4a35-91f5-15521c36dc3e", "symbol": "NJUL", "name": "Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - July", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.397, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.519, "architecture_energy": 20.26, "architecture_maturity": 59.204, "architecture_confidence": 73.708, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.99, "rotation_up": 24.52, "upward_expansion": 47.63, "deceleration": 85.03, "rotation_down": 35.5, "downward_expansion": 27.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.819933, 76.089682, 76.203108, 75.52932 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 77.17, "trend_reference": 74.664657, "distance_from_trend": 0.033555, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 63.886626, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207921, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.084571, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060756, "excess_performance": -0.064869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033555, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019243, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0313, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060756, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.510714, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95655, "relative_activity": 1.186656, "balance": 0.510714, "dry_up": 1.591208, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020778, "annualized_volatility": 0.085139, "from_high_reference": -0.089225, "from_low_reference": 0.12182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.664657, "fair_value_reference": 63.886626, "structural_low": 69.85, "invalidation": "A 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003685, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020402, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084872, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053304, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.068525, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": 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74.302337, "fair_value": 63.272451, "relative_strength": -4.865264, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.330891, "energy": 39.697783, "activity_lines": [ 76.814653, 76.86982, 76.073499, 75.240355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 75.407, "volume": 212243, "typical_volume": 72894.35, "trend": 74.399237, "fair_value": 63.424385, "relative_strength": -5.043209, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.040276, "energy": 25.444571, "activity_lines": [ 76.311073, 76.608082, 76.110353, 75.311624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 74.585, "volume": 109164, "typical_volume": 75855.95, "trend": 74.452737, "fair_value": 63.567967, "relative_strength": -5.378608, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.851314, "energy": 19.564748, "activity_lines": [ 75.647693, 76.217707, 76.057413, 75.323609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.005, "volume": 96000, "typical_volume": 77881.35, "trend": 74.533737, "fair_value": 63.719217, "relative_strength": -5.694254, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.969622, "energy": 16.640545, "activity_lines": [ 75.29698, 75.940149, 76.034082, 75.359239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.17, "volume": 95655, "typical_volume": 80608.9, "trend": 74.664657, "fair_value": 63.886626, "relative_strength": -6.084571, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.518635, "energy": 20.26011, "activity_lines": [ 75.819933, 76.089682, 76.203108, 75.52932 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }