{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c926742-2823-4b9d-809e-01e18630aeeb", "symbol": "SES", "name": "Scandinavian Enviro Systems AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.631, "architecture_energy": 46.896, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.478, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.4, "rotation_up": 15.02, "upward_expansion": 6.5, "deceleration": 44.56, "rotation_down": 64.0, "downward_expansion": 82.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.193373, 0.211211, 0.2212, 0.232415 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.1858, "trend_reference": 0.295527, "distance_from_trend": -0.371292, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.34909, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.862277, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -71.713572, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.718485, "excess_performance": -0.779979, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.371292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.411446, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.862277, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02019, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.717136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065027, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.718485, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.962595, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8502909, "relative_activity": 0.225523, "balance": 3.962595, "dry_up": 0.224172, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.321355, "annualized_volatility": 2.091943, "from_high_reference": -0.873948, "from_low_reference": 1.22515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.295527, "fair_value_reference": 1.34909, "structural_low": 0.0835, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.036478, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.019325, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.748252, "worst_return": -0.762121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.088064, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.095292, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.665436, "worst_return": -0.737576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.071156, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.100038, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.509371, "worst_return": -0.718485, "sufficient": true }, { 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }