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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.725, "architecture_energy": 91.993, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.757, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.63, "rotation_up": 74.06, "upward_expansion": 93.69, "deceleration": 45.69, "rotation_down": 17.23, "downward_expansion": 20.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.857959, 99.796577, 99.696287, 99.581384 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 99.97, "trend_reference": 99.390234, "distance_from_trend": 0.005833, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 94.722473, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.868357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011135, "excess_performance": -0.11449, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005833, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004941, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055399, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005354, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00054, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011135, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 12.573069, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2719274, "relative_activity": 0.746716, "balance": 12.573069, "dry_up": 0.735404, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.000919, "annualized_volatility": 0.005765, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.031105 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.390234, "fair_value_reference": 94.722473, "structural_low": 98.869072, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 51, "median_return": 0.003254, "positive_rate": 0.941176, "directional_follow_through": 0.941176, "median_excess_return": -0.012488, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.011429, "worst_return": -0.004091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.010984, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034504, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.013626, "worst_return": 0.00449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023408, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.056539, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.026545, "worst_return": 0.014646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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72.739334, "activity_lines": [ 99.780338, 99.751412, 99.658051, 99.541054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 99.97, "volume": 2719274, "typical_volume": 3641643.6, "trend": 99.390234, "fair_value": 94.722473, "relative_strength": -9.868357, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.724886, "energy": 91.992849, "activity_lines": [ 99.857959, 99.796577, 99.696287, 99.581384 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }