{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c949e8b-4469-4664-b184-96b13c37e4c0", "symbol": "WBDI", "name": "Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.718, "architecture_energy": 34.185, "architecture_maturity": 9.048, "architecture_confidence": 91.453, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.4, "rotation_up": 18.11, "upward_expansion": 7.46, "deceleration": 42.34, "rotation_down": 50.49, "downward_expansion": 76.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.973666, 23.114636, 23.180428, 23.285839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.139999, "trend_reference": 23.447167, "distance_from_trend": -0.0131, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.359206, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.732139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.059181, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008938, "excess_performance": -0.165308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0131, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009783, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.732139, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135201, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227293, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008938, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02814, "annualized_volatility": 0.13558, "from_high_reference": -0.093083, "from_low_reference": 1.487102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.447167, "fair_value_reference": 13.359206, "structural_low": 22.135, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.000215, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.035923, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.000215, "worst_return": 0.000215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173844, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048372, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.569139, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.417841, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014569, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009888, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01616, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028139, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-01", "close": 22.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 10.125, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 11.375, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.914878, "energy": 55.756252, "activity_lines": [ 23.117, 23.162455, 23.319881, 23.469462 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 23.610001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.0, "trend": 23.656, "fair_value": 12.9248, "relative_strength": -0.961616, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.922276, "energy": 17.489461, "activity_lines": [ 23.258001, 23.240273, 23.334976, 23.472656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 23.35, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.0, "trend": 23.706833, "fair_value": 13.001456, "relative_strength": -5.122076, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.437138, "energy": 18.900296, "activity_lines": [ 23.296667, 23.264728, 23.322095, 23.452914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.209999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.0, "trend": 23.633667, "fair_value": 13.075971, "relative_strength": -5.187834, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.440782, "energy": 18.85206, "activity_lines": [ 23.276333, 23.260455, 23.297453, 23.42086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.809999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.0, "trend": 23.6265, "fair_value": 13.153754, "relative_strength": -1.55852, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.208535, "energy": 10.782169, "activity_lines": [ 23.466, 23.363545, 23.335119, 23.432237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.084999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 23.572167, "fair_value": 13.225201, "relative_strength": -6.424298, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.264967, "energy": 12.662058, "activity_lines": [ 23.373666, 23.321545, 23.304286, 23.397301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.205, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 23.5005, "fair_value": 13.289343, "relative_strength": -10.44768, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.158778, "energy": 43.668935, "activity_lines": [ 22.970999, 23.122454, 23.194119, 23.309097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.139999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 23.447167, "fair_value": 13.359206, "relative_strength": -10.059181, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.718037, "energy": 34.184785, "activity_lines": [ 22.973666, 23.114636, 23.180428, 23.285839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }