{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c94f4d5-e8a1-4574-8da0-85c39a708270", "symbol": "MTR", "name": "Mesa Royalty Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.674, "architecture_energy": 89.032, "architecture_maturity": 46.692, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 25.24, "upward_expansion": 21.12, "deceleration": 37.45, "rotation_down": 68.33, "downward_expansion": 99.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.929333, 3.055075, 3.444196, 3.796655 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.86, "trend_reference": 4.180653, "distance_from_trend": -0.315896, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.040868, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.5938, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.201522, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.383002, "excess_performance": -0.508627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.315896, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085749, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.5938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095426, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.432015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19222, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.383002, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.246527, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16945, "relative_activity": 0.39182, "balance": 0.246527, "dry_up": 0.609779, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082578, "annualized_volatility": 0.281662, "from_high_reference": -0.502557, "from_low_reference": 0.007042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.180653, "fair_value_reference": 7.040868, "structural_low": 2.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.01404, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.652174, "median_excess_return": -0.046884, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.282178, "worst_return": -0.18272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.085107, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.16624, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.073138, "worst_return": -0.291866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.189358, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.312949, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.043601, "worst_return": -0.453993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-38.546503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.513063, "energy": 88.736553, "activity_lines": [ 3.148, 3.339268, 3.781676, 4.064431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.89, "volume": 34496, "typical_volume": 53539.65, "trend": 4.266821, "fair_value": 7.246362, "relative_strength": -41.7745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.045391, "energy": 91.30585, "activity_lines": [ 3.05, 3.22477, 3.659211, 3.972865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.9, "volume": 23247, "typical_volume": 47694.3, "trend": 4.224436, "fair_value": 7.149152, "relative_strength": -41.314331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.961957, "energy": 86.493404, "activity_lines": [ 2.986667, 3.134876, 3.548446, 3.884683 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.86, "volume": 16945, "typical_volume": 43246.85, "trend": 4.180653, "fair_value": 7.040868, "relative_strength": -43.201522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.673706, "energy": 89.031546, "activity_lines": [ 2.929333, 3.055075, 3.444196, 3.796655 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }