{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c964312-576a-4da7-b050-5b6eb57d6645", "symbol": "ANNX", "name": "Annexin Pharmaceuticals AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.163, "architecture_energy": 38.357, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.998, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.98, "rotation_up": 24.34, "upward_expansion": 5.18, "deceleration": 50.39, "rotation_down": 42.61, "downward_expansion": 73.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.54, 12.606291, 13.103363, 13.54724 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.65, "trend_reference": 14.246534, "distance_from_trend": -0.112065, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.798546, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.602183, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.349973, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.204403, "excess_performance": -0.265897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176342, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.602183, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026731, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.4135, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018786, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204403, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.327371, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22857, "relative_activity": 0.915635, "balance": 0.327371, "dry_up": 1.054681, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083869, "annualized_volatility": 0.67008, "from_high_reference": -0.578333, "from_low_reference": 0.144796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.246534, "fair_value_reference": 31.798546, "structural_low": 11.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.035669, "positive_rate": 0.309524, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.05164, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.308108, "worst_return": -0.292929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.195652, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.205107, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 1.342938, "worst_return": -0.420065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.361111, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.363529, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.252825, "worst_return": -0.533531, "sufficient": true 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14.676534, "fair_value": 32.238493, "relative_strength": -43.289814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.917883, "energy": 41.551822, "activity_lines": [ 12.72, 12.738874, 13.330707, 13.818083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.25, "volume": 16925, "typical_volume": 24616.5, "trend": 14.421534, "fair_value": 32.009077, "relative_strength": -43.223512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.764631, "energy": 43.569223, "activity_lines": [ 12.553333, 12.624401, 13.192154, 13.661533 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.65, "volume": 22857, "typical_volume": 24963.0, "trend": 14.246534, "fair_value": 31.798546, "relative_strength": -41.349973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.16288, "energy": 38.357249, "activity_lines": [ 12.54, 12.606291, 13.103363, 13.54724 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }