{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c976bf4-057f-4b99-8f7d-507d9108f86b", "symbol": "300594", "name": "Shandong Longertek Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.671, "architecture_energy": 81.458, "architecture_maturity": 59.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.84, "rotation_up": 29.64, "upward_expansion": 20.37, "deceleration": 38.02, "rotation_down": 54.17, "downward_expansion": 93.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.73, 13.934, 16.013, 18.77686 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.94, "trend_reference": 21.653333, "distance_from_trend": -0.310037, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.60559, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.197016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.681992, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.388957, "excess_performance": -0.396357, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.310037, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058824, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.197016, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262339, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28682, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.388957, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.232841, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11241569, "relative_activity": 0.867056, "balance": 0.232841, "dry_up": 0.619862, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111111, "annualized_volatility": 0.742747, "from_high_reference": -0.556677, "from_low_reference": 0.281304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.653333, "fair_value_reference": 18.60559, "structural_low": 11.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.002428, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026507, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.238547, "worst_return": -0.207853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.025016, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.049969, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.603352, "worst_return": -0.137234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009964, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074434, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.120858, "worst_return": -0.24581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"fair_value": 18.87887, "relative_strength": -38.267831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.016729, "energy": 83.883787, "activity_lines": [ 14.354, 15.312, 18.860619, 20.988172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.43, "volume": 6385200, "typical_volume": 15661491.05, "trend": 22.204333, "fair_value": 18.800922, "relative_strength": -34.966785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.339219, "energy": 82.786061, "activity_lines": [ 14.0, 14.774, 18.005476, 20.416065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.5, "volume": 8671500, "typical_volume": 14561340.55, "trend": 22.024333, "fair_value": 18.73012, "relative_strength": -39.15069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.910269, "energy": 84.094806, "activity_lines": [ 13.447333, 14.196909, 17.153333, 19.789979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.19, "volume": 5848300, "typical_volume": 13495480.55, "trend": 21.809, "fair_value": 18.65687, "relative_strength": -34.227388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.97162, "energy": 86.324725, "activity_lines": [ 13.286667, 13.859636, 16.456333, 19.220022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.94, "volume": 11241569, "typical_volume": 12965215.05, "trend": 21.653333, "fair_value": 18.60559, "relative_strength": -28.681992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.670894, "energy": 81.458391, "activity_lines": [ 13.73, 13.934, 16.013, 18.77686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }