{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c9d086c-fbb5-4932-b14c-ca5200049fa1", "symbol": "MTD", "name": "Mettler-Toledo International Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 53.858, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 56.708, "architecture_energy": 77.275, "architecture_maturity": 18.029, "architecture_confidence": 60.997, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.72, "rotation_up": 81.07, "upward_expansion": 69.25, "deceleration": 18.12, "rotation_down": 16.23, "downward_expansion": 25.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 1194.933333, 1153.372727, 1097.304762, 1090.317204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 1237.0, "trend_reference": 1099.2, "distance_from_trend": 0.125364, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1141.080769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08406, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.28287, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06592, "excess_performance": -0.108327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.125364, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032692, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08406, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.233148, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146864, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06592, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10, "relative_activity": 3.125, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 3.4375, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048225, "annualized_volatility": 0.304095, "from_high_reference": -0.059316, "from_low_reference": 0.404884 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1099.2, "fair_value_reference": 1141.080769, "structural_low": 880.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003789, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011025, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.105546, "worst_return": -0.112922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.091828, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.085964, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115315, "worst_return": -0.267753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02768, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.185659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195045, "worst_return": -0.192876, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049649, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109135, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035931, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065381, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030379, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008186, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020094, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011273, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022202, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077526, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1102.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.95, "trend": 1293.366667, "fair_value": 1281.213636, "relative_strength": -14.187578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.349366, "energy": 88.189215, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.056365, "energy": 50.339087, "activity_lines": [ 983.666667, 997.927273, 1035.990476, 1072.380645 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 998.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4.1, "trend": 1113.016667, "fair_value": 1141.830769, "relative_strength": -29.374518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.973798, "energy": 36.651367, "activity_lines": [ 993.366667, 992.872727, 1029.295238, 1064.467742 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1101.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.2, "trend": 1107.266667, "fair_value": 1141.144872, "relative_strength": -20.233318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.3608, "energy": 15.910253, "activity_lines": [ 1031.066667, 1008.863636, 1033.154762, 1063.692473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1144.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.4, "trend": 1104.716667, "fair_value": 1140.991026, "relative_strength": -18.712383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.229451, "energy": 18.540843, "activity_lines": [ 1072.766667, 1033.2, 1041.392857, 1066.062366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1128.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.4, "trend": 1102.333333, "fair_value": 1140.619231, "relative_strength": -18.413161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.44329, "energy": 28.88393, "activity_lines": [ 1100.066667, 1053.736364, 1048.140476, 1067.564516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1148.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.8, "trend": 1100.8, "fair_value": 1140.055128, "relative_strength": -15.031487, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.794494, "energy": 43.304348, "activity_lines": [ 1125.633333, 1077.036364, 1056.990476, 1070.510753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1169.0, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 1.9, "trend": 1100.0, "fair_value": 1140.125641, "relative_strength": -14.285672, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.607604, "energy": 59.197339, "activity_lines": [ 1147.333333, 1101.1, 1067.830952, 1074.910753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1202.0, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 3.05, "trend": 1100.2, "fair_value": 1140.407693, "relative_strength": -11.51451, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.721432, "energy": 64.975636, "activity_lines": [ 1168.666667, 1126.381818, 1081.316667, 1081.491398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1237.0, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 3.2, "trend": 1099.2, "fair_value": 1141.080769, "relative_strength": -11.28287, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.708081, "energy": 77.275408, "activity_lines": [ 1194.933333, 1153.372727, 1097.304762, 1090.317204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }