{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1c9e5690-2425-49b0-a7e3-8792943ad042", "symbol": "THCOM", "name": "Thaicom Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.25, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.544, "architecture_energy": 25.962, "architecture_maturity": 33.424, "architecture_confidence": 61.31, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.99, "rotation_up": 24.95, "upward_expansion": 11.82, "deceleration": 50.69, "rotation_down": 44.35, "downward_expansion": 48.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.073333, 11.138182, 11.359048, 11.476882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.2, "trend_reference": 11.325, "distance_from_trend": -0.011038, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.411, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018491, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.484659, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172775, "excess_performance": -0.01955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011038, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085463, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018491, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154697, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064847, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236192, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172775, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.433894, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30479100, "relative_activity": 0.854209, "balance": 0.433894, "dry_up": 0.578086, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065934, "annualized_volatility": 0.430018, "from_high_reference": -0.211268, "from_low_reference": 0.473684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.325, "fair_value_reference": 11.411, "structural_low": 9.65, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.009804, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.031505, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.140351, "worst_return": -0.103093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.060345, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.065269, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.368421, "worst_return": -0.153024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.000379, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.062989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175258, "worst_return": -0.356061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02568, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04215, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.172283, "worst_return": -0.435252, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.204724, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059829, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.150442, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021164, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015789, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103093, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06135, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023669, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116279, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034483, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.365, "volume": 46833700, "typical_volume": 44326460.0, "trend": 12.914321, "fair_value": 9.938689, "relative_strength": 12.294177, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.053504, "energy": 13.249811, "activity_lines": [ 11.246667, 11.370909, 11.623333, 11.493548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.2, "volume": 22013700, "typical_volume": 53337930.0, "trend": 11.08, "fair_value": 11.44125, "relative_strength": -8.237434, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.900226, "energy": 11.942382, "activity_lines": [ 11.22, 11.309091, 11.562857, 11.507312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.9, "volume": 18179200, "typical_volume": 48033405.0, "trend": 11.158333, "fair_value": 11.427987, "relative_strength": -10.886407, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.132725, "energy": 18.237399, "activity_lines": [ 11.126667, 11.225455, 11.476667, 11.495699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.9, "volume": 11834900, "typical_volume": 40789235.0, "trend": 11.233333, "fair_value": 11.421705, "relative_strength": -9.83642, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.919006, "energy": 23.317816, "activity_lines": [ 11.06, 11.150909, 11.4, 11.479032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.2, "volume": 30479100, "typical_volume": 35681080.0, "trend": 11.325, "fair_value": 11.411, "relative_strength": -6.484659, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.543779, "energy": 25.961948, "activity_lines": [ 11.073333, 11.138182, 11.359048, 11.476882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }